EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that in 2025, boosted by multiple factors including the spillover effects of deposit "disintermediation," the release of "floating profits" from valuation rectifications, and the expansion of rights-containing products to enhance returns, the wealth management scale for the entire market is estimated to increase by approximately 3.5 trillion yuan, reaching 33-34 trillion yuan. Looking ahead to 2026, what potential new changes might occur in the operational logic of the wealth management business? The bank analyzed this by addressing nine hot topics across five dimensions. The main views of EB SECURITIES are as follows: Deposit "disintermediation" remains a crucial support for the scale of wealth management, but the pace of scale growth may occasionally be bumpy; the neutral forecast is for a scale increase of around 3 trillion yuan. Calculations estimate that the maturity volume of deposits with terms over 2 years for listed banks in 2026 will be approximately 41 trillion yuan, an increase of about 9 trillion yuan year-on-year, while the comparative pricing effect between deposits and wealth management products may intensify deposit "disintermediation." However, constrained by factors such as increased return volatility due to "true net value" operations and pressure from the scale contraction of "ranking-chasing" products, the growth pace of the wealth management scale might experience some turbulence. Since the beginning of the year, considering seasonal factors, banks' strong willingness to attract deposits, and fund diversion by competing products like insurance, even though the deposit maturity volume is large in the first half of the year, the wealth management scale in the first quarter may struggle to deliver performance exceeding expectations. The product layout will solidify the basic foundation of low-volatility stability while actively expanding rights-containing products; it is estimated that wealth management could bring 150-300 billion yuan of allocation funds into the stock market in 2026. Along with the improving sentiment in the capital markets, wealth management companies are actively developing rights-containing products; in 2025, the scale of "fixed-income+" wealth management products grew by 1.5 trillion yuan, with the outstanding scale at year-end increasing by nearly 16% compared to the beginning of the year. Recently, regulatory authorities have conducted research on the bottlenecks and difficulties related to the entry of wealth management funds into the stock market. Looking ahead to 2026, there is a strong impetus for wealth management to further expand rights-containing products, and multi-asset allocation, represented by equity-like assets, will continue to be an important lever for wealth management to enhance returns. Regarding equity investments, beyond the stock assets that the market focuses on, wealth management can also participate through methods such as strategic placements and offline IPO subscriptions. In asset allocation, allocations to deposit-like assets remain rigid, while seeking returns through multi-asset, multi-strategy approaches; attention should be paid to potential marginal changes that might cause a shift in wealth management's allocation preference from deposits to bond-like assets. In the context of further standardizing net value operations, methods like third-party valuations to stabilize net values are estimated to be unlikely to become mainstream; wealth management needs to return to the fundamental principles of asset management to stabilize net values. A preliminary outlook for the major asset allocation of wealth management in 2026 is as follows: (1) Certain allocation intensity will still be required for varieties like deposits and specific private placement bonds, while maintaining a high proportion of liquid asset allocations; given the continued rigidity of deposit allocations, can the willingness of wealth management to allocate to bonds see a marginal improvement? The bank believes this requires at least two factors: ① a change in the relative "cost-performance" of deposit and bond-like assets; ② a change in the constraints that the stability of wealth management liabilities places on allocation capabilities; (2) It is estimated that in bond allocation, wealth management will maintain strong demand for the short end, while allocation capacity for the medium to long end of the curve may decrease, pushing the yield curve to steepen; (3) Seeking enhanced returns through multi-asset, multi-strategy approaches, with increasing differences in allocation across product lines with different risk budgets; (4) Wealth management funds will maintain a high allocation intensity to asset management products like public funds and trust plans. The performance benchmarks for wealth management operations will continue to face downward pressure, the potential for net value drawdowns increases, but liquidity is estimated to be of no concern. Under the "true net value" operation model, the client experience of wealth management returns in 2026 may weaken compared to the previous year; as markets adjust, specific product lines facing阶段性 redemption disturbances could become a "new normal." Considering factors such as the increased proportion of low-volatility assets in wealth management, ample liquidity provisions, improved investor tolerance, and regulatory support for liquidity, the probability of redemption pressure transmitting to the liability side and intensifying into a negative feedback loop is extremely low. Regarding the competitive landscape, the market share of wealth management companies is rising from a high base, with channel factors being an important variable affecting the competitive dynamics. For the competitive landscape of the wealth management industry, the bank believes there may be three future changes: (1) Distribution channels will further penetrate into counties and other areas, enhancing wealth management companies' customer reach, coupled with the orderly exit of unlicensed institutions, leaving room for further increases in the market share of wealth management companies; (2) The number of wealth management institutions will remain largely stable, with new institution approvals still potentially expected; (3) As distribution channels further expand, while enlarging the total pie, "involution-style" competition may also intensify. In an environment where channels are king, starting from the liability side to alleviate asset allocation pressure might encounter obstacles. Risk analysis: The outlook analysis may deviate from the actual situation; potential statistical discrepancies in wealth management data from third-party institutions.
Comments