The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that from January to April, with the continuous implementation of more proactive and effective macro policies, the national economy has generally maintained a trend of stability with progress, and high-quality development has been steadily advanced. However, it should also be noted that the external environment remains complex and volatile, the domestic contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" is still prominent, and the foundation for economic recovery and improvement still needs reinforcement.
On the production side, industrial operations are generally stable, with new growth drivers demonstrating a prominent leading role. From January to April, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.6% year-on-year. Although the growth rate for April alone slowed to 4.1%, the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 8.3% and 12.8%, respectively. Output of products related to the digital economy and artificial intelligence (such as industrial robots and integrated circuits) and green products (such as lithium batteries) maintained high growth rates, becoming important engines driving industrial growth. Influenced by both domestic and international factors, industrial product prices have rebounded, leading to a notable improvement in corporate profitability. From January to March, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with profits in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors growing by 21% and 47.4%, respectively, highlighting particularly significant profit improvement in high-end manufacturing. As comprehensive efforts to address "involution-style" competition progress, the market environment is gradually optimizing, and corporate confidence continues to improve. In April, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 50.3%, remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months; the production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.5%, reaching a new high for the year.
On the consumption side, total growth is under pressure, with significant structural differentiation. From January to April, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 16,494.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%; excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.1%. However, in April alone, total retail sales grew by only 0.2%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 1.8%, indicating that the momentum for goods consumption needs a boost. The slowdown in goods retail sales growth in April was affected by both a high base from the same period last year (5.1%) and fluctuations in international commodity prices. In terms of automobile sales, overall sales in April fell by 15.3%. Last year's low-price strategies by automakers created a high base; this year, with subsidies being phased out and industry-wide efforts against "involution," prices have stabilized, but rising oil prices have impacted sales. Notably, sales of fuel vehicles declined significantly, with passenger car sales dropping by 18.8%; in contrast, new energy vehicle sales grew against the trend by 3.8%, with exports reaching approximately 430,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 110%. Additionally, retail sales of gold, silver, and jewelry fell by 21.3% year-on-year, mainly due to high and volatile gold prices dampening consumer willingness; the growth rate in the same period last year was as high as 25.3%, indicating a significant base effect. Meanwhile, sales of products such as microcomputers and mobile phones also declined due to rising international memory prices. Despite this, service consumption continued to grow rapidly, supporting the overall stability of the consumption sector. From January to April, service retail sales increased by 5.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.1 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Some upgraded goods categories showed good retail growth, and new forms of consumption continued to expand, indicating that the trend of consumption structure optimization remains unchanged.
On the investment side, real estate remains the main drag, but initial signs of stabilization in the sector are emerging. From January to April, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.6% year-on-year; excluding real estate development investment, it grew by 1.3%. By sector, infrastructure investment grew by 4.3%, manufacturing investment grew by 1.2%, while real estate development investment fell by 13.7%, highlighting that real estate remains the primary factor behind the decline in investment. In April alone, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.36% month-on-month, with real estate investment continuing to be a drag. However, positive signals have emerged—commercial housing sales improved significantly in April, with new residential property prices in first-tier cities among the 70 major cities rising month-on-month, while declines in second- and third-tier cities narrowed or remained flat. Last year's Central Economic Work Conference explicitly called for "promoting investment to stop declining and stabilize." Since the beginning of this year, policies related to "two major projects" and "two new areas" have been steadily advanced, with central budget investment, ultra-long-term special government bonds, and local special bonds being implemented at a faster pace. At the end of April, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee made comprehensive arrangements, calling for strengthening the planning and construction of the "six networks," stabilizing the real estate market, steadily advancing urban renewal, and increasing investment in people's livelihood areas such as education, healthcare, and childcare.
Overall, despite facing multiple challenges both domestically and internationally, the main theme of "stability" in the Chinese economy remains unchanged. The slowdown in some indicators in April is part of normal monthly fluctuations, while cumulative data and structural indicators still demonstrate the resilience of economic operations. At present, the macro policy toolkit is abundant, with significant room for cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments. The precision and effectiveness of policy implementation continue to improve, providing the conditions and capability to address various risks and challenges.
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