JPMorgan Highlights China Telecom as Key AI Token Play, Maintains Overweight on Major Telcos with China Mobile as Top Pick

Stock News05-19

JPMorgan has released a research report stating that the H-share prices of the three major Chinese telecommunications stocks rose yesterday (18th), reflecting investor optimism that telecom operators are becoming beneficiaries of AI monetization as part of the "real economy." This movement followed the companies' launch of AI Token packages targeting small and medium-sized enterprises and retail users. The firm maintains a positive outlook on China Mobile (00941), China Telecom (00728), and China Unicom (00762), assigning an "Overweight" rating to all three.

The bank believes that improvements in AI monetization and reduced competition in telecom services could drive a recovery in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth starting from 2026, with profit growth resuming from 2027. The year 2026 is expected to be impacted by adjustments to value-added tax. Among the three telecom stocks, JPMorgan's top H-share preference remains China Mobile, followed by China Telecom and then China Unicom.

The report identifies China Telecom as the proxy stock for the AI Token theme, positioned to benefit most from positive sentiment surrounding China's AI Token narrative and the launch of DeepSeek V4. This is attributed to its cloud business revenue, projected to constitute 25% of service revenue in 2025, which is higher than China Mobile's 12% and China Unicom's 21%. China Telecom has initiated trial commercialization of its Token packages, targeting individual/household users, developers, and SMEs. These packages integrate its proprietary Xingchen large model, the Zhipu GLM5, and other mainstream domestic AI models.

China Mobile elevated its AI Token operations from standalone packages to a platform and ecosystem level at its 2026 Mobile Cloud Conference. The core of this strategy is its "Mobile Cloud Model Service Platform MoMA" and a broader Token operation ecosystem, which has already connected over 300 mainstream AI models. China Unicom's individual user Token plans are divided into three tiers, and its Unicom Cloud and "Unicom Yuanjing" MaaS platform have launched Token plans for both individuals and teams.

Capital expenditures on computing power (for cloud/IDC/AI) by the three major telecom operators are forecasted to continue rising in 2026. China Telecom and China Mobile are expected to see year-on-year increases of 26% and 62%, respectively, demonstrating their commitment to AI development.

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