Anthropic has become the hottest company in Silicon Valley's private secondary markets over recent weeks. On platforms for trading unlisted shares, such as Forge Global, Anthropic's valuation has surged close to $1 trillion, with some sellers offering prices as high as $1.05 to $1.15 trillion.
In comparison, OpenAI's valuation on similar platforms is approximately $880 billion, slightly above its funding valuation of $852 billion from March of this year, but trading activity has lagged behind Anthropic.
This shift in pricing reflects a change in market sentiment. For the past two years, OpenAI has been at the center of the AI ecosystem, with the strongest user recognition, broadest product influence, and highest brand visibility. Anthropic has long been seen as a high-quality challenger, known for its advanced model capabilities, disciplined organizational style, and measured commercial approach. Now, the secondary market is signaling a new hierarchy, with investors viewing Anthropic as a scarcer and more rapidly appreciating asset.
Private secondary markets often trade on scarcity before consensus. For unlisted companies, price updates mainly come from funding rounds and secondary transfers. The latter more accurately reflects short-term supply and demand. Anthropic's recent surge began with a rapid contraction in supply. Just three months ago, its latest funding round valued the company at around $380 billion. In a short period, secondary market offers have more than doubled. Existing shareholders, faced with such rapid appreciation, have become increasingly reluctant to sell. Many have received frequent acquisition offers recently, but few are willing to part with their shares. With limited available stock, reduced selling pressure quickly drives prices higher.
Buyer behavior has shifted even more noticeably. Growth funds, family offices, and late-stage institutional investors are now focusing on Anthropic. The primary reason is that top-tier AI assets remain largely unavailable on public markets, and primary shares are highly restricted, making the secondary market one of the few remaining avenues for investment. When multiple investors compete for a very limited number of shares, prices can quickly detach from conventional valuation metrics and enter a phase driven by future expectations. At this stage, the price reflects not only the company's current worth but also the belief that Anthropic has the potential to become one of the few, most certain AI platform companies in the coming years.
Anthropic's revaluation is supported by revenue growth and the launch of Claude Code. The company's recent momentum is not solely driven by market sentiment but also by two factors that are easily priced by capital: accelerating revenue growth and the product extensibility demonstrated by Claude Code.
Revenue growth establishes a valuation floor. While model capabilities can be matched within months, a stable commercial trajectory is harder to replicate. Investors are more willing to pay a premium for companies demonstrating sustained revenue growth, as it indicates the ability to convert technological advantages into repeatable, scalable cash flow expectations. Among AI companies today, those who first establish a revenue structure are more likely to command higher valuation multiples.
Claude Code, on the other hand, raises the valuation ceiling. Programming represents one of the most monetizable applications for AI, characterized by high usage frequency and easily measurable outcomes. Developers are willing to pay for efficiency gains, and enterprises are ready to invest in stable workflow solutions. As long as the market believes Anthropic can continue expanding in code generation, agent collaboration, and enterprise development tools, its identity will shift from a model company to an infrastructure provider potentially controlling developer access points. Capital markets are willing to assign higher growth potential to the latter.
OpenAI's relative discount stems from caution following its high starting point. A dip in secondary market interest does not indicate a reversal in OpenAI's fundamentals. In terms of brand strength, distribution, and product reach, OpenAI remains the industry leader. The issue lies mainly in its elevated valuation baseline. The $852 billion funding valuation already incorporates optimistic growth expectations for the coming years. To justify further price increases, investors require stronger evidence of rapid revenue realization, organizational stability, and clear profitability pathways.
Another factor is that OpenAI's narrative has been extensively discussed in the market. ChatGPT's user base, multimodal strategy, enterprise product lines, agent development, and platform ambitions are all highly visible. While high visibility brings recognition, it also limits room for short-term surprises. For secondary market buyers, OpenAI remains a high-quality asset but is no longer viewed as an undiscovered opportunity.
Anthropic, by contrast, is in a different phase. Its shares are scarcer, its narrative is evolving more quickly, and its price is still in a rapid revaluation period. Secondary markets naturally favor such assets due to their greater volatility and sensitivity to sentiment-driven trading.
Platforms like Forge Global have amplified both prices and sentiment in this valuation surge. Primary market funding rounds update prices slowly and are typically confined to a small group of institutions. Secondary platforms aggregate fragmented buyers and sellers, making each inquiry, listing, and transaction a potential new price anchor. Once a high offer gains widespread attention, sellers hold back further, while buyers fear missing out on the next price increase. This reinforces psychology on both sides of the supply-demand equation.
This is a hallmark of private secondary markets—prices often move ahead of fundamental changes. Especially when leading AI companies are in no rush to go public and primary shares are locked up by long-term capital, secondary markets absorb significant unmet investment demand. The rapid price increase contains elements of speculation but also reflects the structural reality of limited supply.
Capital is beginning to reassess the valuation logic for AI companies. Anthropic's secondary market overtaking of OpenAI appears on the surface as a shift in share pricing, but underlying it is a broader transition in how AI firms are valued. Earlier, the market focused on which company had the strongest model or the most users. Today, investors are increasingly concerned with which players can penetrate high-frequency, high-value, verifiable use cases; integrate models into stable workflows; control developer and enterprise access points; and convert technological leadership into revenue and platform positioning.
Anthropic's premium, driven by Claude Code and revenue growth, and OpenAI's moderated pricing due to high valuation saturation and fully priced expectations, both indicate the same trend: the valuation of AI companies is shifting from model leaderboards to access control and commercial execution. The secondary market is simply aligning valuations with this change earlier than other venues.
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