Data collected over the past 24 hours by the "Liquor Price Report" shows that the average terminal retail prices of major Chinese baijiu products continued to decline overall on May 21. If one bottle of each major product were packaged and sold together, the total price today would be 9,968 yuan, a drop of 17 yuan from yesterday, marking the lowest level in nearly six days. The market has continued to consolidate after falling below the 10,000 yuan threshold, with subdued sentiment in terminal transactions, and significant divergence in the performance of core products persists. Among the 11 major baijiu products today, two rose, eight fell, and two remained unchanged, with losers continuing to dominate. On the upside, Yanghe's Dream Blue M6+ led the gains, rising by 6 yuan per bottle to 606 yuan, setting a new one-month high. Xijiao Junpin saw a modest increase of 1 yuan per bottle. On the downside, Guojiao 1573 led the declines, falling by 6 yuan per bottle for the third consecutive day of significant drops. Gujing Gongjiu Gu20 and Qinghualang each fell by 5 yuan per bottle, with Gu20 also experiencing three consecutive days of declines, pushing its price to the second-lowest level of the month. Premium Moutai dropped by 3 yuan per bottle, marking a slight pullback from its monthly high for the second day. Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. Pu Wu Eighth Generation both fell by 2 yuan per bottle, with the latter's price gradually declining over the past week, now reaching the second-lowest point of the month. Qinghuafen 20 decreased by 1 yuan per bottle, again hitting a new one-month low. Prices for Wuliangye 1618 and Crystal Jiannanchun remained unchanged compared to the previous day. The daily data for the "Liquor Price Report" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to designated distributors, independent dealers, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sampling data consists of actual transaction terminal retail prices from these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu products. With the official i-Moutai platform launching sales of Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle on New Year's Day (adjusted to 1,539 yuan per bottle on March 31) and Premium Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9 (adjusted to 2,359 yuan per bottle on May 16), the magnetic influence of this new channel on the average terminal retail prices of these two products is gradually becoming apparent. The daily liquor prices released by the "Liquor Price Report" follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volumes, and verifiable prices have been incorporated into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for these two products. In significant news for the baijiu industry, a review of Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd.'s shareholder meeting was released on the 19th, noting that the company's operations are in an orderly recovery phase, with relatively solid dividend support. Management addressed shareholder concerns with "three commitments": upholding product quality, advancing marketing reforms, and rewarding shareholders through a combination of "share buybacks, increased holdings, and high dividends." The company will further focus resource investments on core products such as Pu Wu, 1618, Wuliangchun, and 39-degree Wuliangye, streamline low-efficiency products, and continuously optimize supply and demand layouts. It was also stated that the company's operations in 2026 continue to improve, with Pu Wu's sell-through showing signs of recovery, and 1618 and 39-degree Wuliangye performing notably well during the May Day holiday. A minimum cash dividend of 20 billion yuan corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 6.0%. When combined with shareholder buybacks and share repurchase cancellations, the actual dividend yield could reach 9.3% to 10.5%. In terms of profit forecasts, it is estimated that Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd.'s revenue for 2026 to 2028 will be 46.3 billion yuan, 51.8 billion yuan, and 57.4 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 14%, 12%, and 11%, respectively. Net profits attributable to shareholders are projected to be 14.5 billion yuan, 17.0 billion yuan, and 20.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 62%, 17%, and 18%, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 23x, 20x, and 17x. A "Buy" rating is maintained.
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