Reviewing trading history reveals how many participants have repeatedly made naive and costly errors in the markets. These mistakes are destined to recur, as human nature—greed for wealth and the desire to conquer markets—remains unchanged. Many neglect historical lessons, failing to grasp the critical importance of discipline. Without respecting the past, one cannot truly understand the seriousness of trading rules.
Market Outlook The trading pattern witnessed is unprecedented. The premium of U.S. crude front-month futures over both the second-month and seven-month contracts reached record highs. A statement from a political figure triggered extreme volatility, contrary to what seasoned traders hoped for. This led to the unusual phenomenon where WTI crude, from a nation perceived as oil-rich, traded at a $3 premium to Brent.
U.S. WTI crude skyrocketed by over $16 from its intraday low, marking the largest single-day rally since the onset of recent conflicts and the biggest actual price gain since 2020. It set a new post-conflict closing high and led global oil markets. The price surge, defying the country's abundant crude reserves, signaled market participants pressuring the administration to compromise. A leader known for leveraging misleading statements to manipulate markets faced a severe backlash.
When domestic markets opened at 9:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, oil prices rebounded sharply as the wartime address began. The market had anticipated a bearish tone, but the speech, aimed at reassuring Americans and stabilizing financial markets by declaring imminent victory and suggesting the conflict was nearing an end, failed to impress. Instead, subsequent hawkish remarks hinting at potential military escalation and strikes on Iranian energy facilities rattled investors. Gold and silver prices plummeted, while U.S. and Brent crude soared, causing significant financial turbulence due to the stark contrast in expectations.
Threats of severe retaliation dashed hopes for a quick resolution, reducing the likelihood of a near-term ceasefire and raising risks of further geopolitical escalation. Iran remained defiant, with military officials stating their ultimate goals included U.S. troop withdrawal from the Middle East and the destruction of American bases in the region. Iran vowed to ensure "proportional damage" to adversaries to prevent renewed conflicts. Meanwhile, the French president emphasized that reopening the Strait of Hormuz through military means was "unrealistic," advocating instead for negotiation with Iran.
Escalating geopolitical risks revived concerns over oil supply disruptions. Reports indicated that Ukrainian attacks on Russian port infrastructure, pipelines, and refineries had reduced Russia's export capacity by approximately 1 million barrels per day, or one-fifth of its total. This overshadowed potential OPEC+ decisions to increase output at its upcoming meeting. Investors quickly adjusted their oil price forecasts, forcing domestic traders who had anticipated declines to reverse their positions.
Notably, after a broad gap-up opening during the night session, domestic energy and chemical sectors experienced significant pullbacks, exceeding expectations. Domestic capital exhibited caution, preferring to take profits or sell into strength rather than chase rallies. With Western markets closed for Easter and domestic markets shut for Qingming Festival on Monday, holiday effects amplified the withdrawal of funds. This trend continued the pattern of high volatility observed recently, with domestic market weakness contrasting sharply with international momentum—a reminder of stability amid global turmoil. For retail investors, navigating opportunities and managing risks remains challenging. The oil market's outlook stays complex, susceptible to sharp swings influenced by contradictory statements. Vigilance and stringent risk control are advised.
Daily Market Movements WTI crude futures surged by $11.42, or 11.41%, settling at $111.54 per barrel. Brent crude futures rose by $7.87, or 7.78%, to close at $109.03 per barrel. INE crude futures gained 3.75%, ending at 713.2 yuan.
The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.46% to 100.01. The USD/CNY rate on the Hong Kong Exchange rose 0.31% to 6.8647. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up 0.06% to 111.02. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.13% to 46,504.67.
Recent Developments A national address on Iran delivered on April 2 claimed decisive victory, stating that Iran's naval forces had been destroyed, its air force and air defense crippled, and its missile capabilities neutralized. The speech asserted that Iran no longer possessed the capacity for large-scale attacks and that its nuclear weapons program had been entirely halted. It warned that if negotiations with Iran's new leadership failed, the U.S. would strike remaining military targets, oil infrastructure, and the power grid with unprecedented force. The address also declared that the U.S. would no longer bear primary responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz, shifting that burden to other nations using the waterway. It predicted a significant decline in gasoline prices following troop withdrawal.
According to Reuters, industry sources reported that Ukrainian attacks on Russian export infrastructure had reduced capacity by about 1 million barrels per day, potentially forcing production cuts. As the world's second-largest oil exporter, any reduction in Russian output would exacerbate global supply tightness amid existing disruptions. Key Baltic ports had suspended oil exports, leading to pipeline congestion and storage shortages, necessitating output reductions at some fields.
OPEC+ sources indicated that the group might consider further output increases at its upcoming meeting, enabling major producers to boost supply swiftly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. While a March meeting agreed to a modest April hike of 206,000 barrels per day, Sunday's gathering would set quotas for May. One source noted that any increase would likely be symbolic, signaling readiness to act once shipping resumes, though another suggested pausing incremental hikes due to current export constraints.
Iran's Tasnim News Agency reported that market participants had seen through the political rhetoric, responding negatively. It claimed that aside from White House staff, few believed the address achieved its objectives, drawing parallels to perceived military failures.
The Financial Times highlighted that Gulf nations were reconsidering costly pipeline projects to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid fears of prolonged Iranian control. Officials noted that while such infrastructure would be expensive and politically complex, it offered the only long-term alternative to reduce reliance on the strait. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, built in the 1980s, was cited as a strategic asset capable of transporting 7 million barrels daily to the Red Sea, completely avoiding the chokepoint. Expansion plans or new routes were under evaluation to enhance pipeline exports.
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