Gold Market Trend Analysis:
On June 26th, the market during the Asian session awaited the release of the evening's PCE price index, with overall trading leaning towards caution. The gold price tested the 4000 level several times but failed to achieve a decisive breakthrough, remaining in a narrow consolidation range between 3970 and 4000. The final published PCE figure was largely in line with market expectations, an outcome already priced in earlier. The data release perfectly aligned with the 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' trading logic, causing the US dollar index to retreat in the short term. Gold seized this opportunity for a rapid rally, firmly breaking above the 4000 level and surging to around 4010. Long positions previously established between 3995 and 4000 consequently benefited from a second wave of gains during the US session, as prices broke above 4030.
During the Asian session, the gold price faced resistance and retreated from the 4000 level four or five times. After sufficient accumulation, it leveraged the positive data to break through key resistance, subsequently triggering a follow-through bullish momentum. This breakthrough is the core rationale for following up with long positions. With the upward breakout, the consolidation range has shifted higher to 3990-4040. The high short position pre-planned at 4040 and the low long position near 4000 during the US session precisely captured the range's extremes, offering strong certainty for short-term gains. In today's early trading, gold quickly retreated to 3983 after a surge to 4036, then stabilized and rebounded again. The resistance zone of 4038-4043 has been tested multiple times, confirming its formidable strength. As long as the price fails to sustain above this zone intraday, the overarching trading strategy remains to sell on rallies.
Heightened vigilance is required for risk signals from external markets. Asia-Pacific stock markets weakened collectively in early trading, with South Korean stocks experiencing extreme volatility and trading halts for several consecutive days. The Nikkei index and A-shares also declined, while European and US stock index futures fell in advance, indicating a spreading risk-off sentiment. This round of stock market pressure stems from Apple's price hikes across its product line, impacting valuations of supply chain suppliers and significantly dampening market risk appetite. If European and US stock markets continue their decline in the evening session, gold may face renewed liquidity-driven selling pressure, becoming a source of funds to cover stock market margin requirements. Should the 3990 support level be decisively broken, the short-term rebound and recovery phase would likely end abruptly, plunging the gold price back into a weak downtrend.
After the back-and-forth swings during the US sessions on Wednesday and Thursday, the chart presents clear support and resistance boundaries: The immediate strong resistance is locked at 4038-4043. Only a decisive break above 4043 would provide the momentum for bulls to target 4060-4070. Short-term support lies at 4000-4005, which was also the pivotal point for shifts between bullish and bearish forces yesterday. The crucial mid-term defensive level is at 3990; a break below this would likely trigger renewed and accelerated selling pressure from bears. Influenced by the negative lead from Asia-Pacific equity markets, the core intraday strategy is primarily to sell at higher levels. The optimal selling point awaits in the 4038-4043 range.
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