World Cup betting demand has driven a rapid revenue surge for Kalshi, with the platform's annualized revenue breaking through the $4 billion mark in July, according to sources familiar with the matter. This figure doubled from just over $2 billion in annualized revenue two months ago. The growth is set to propel the prediction trading platform's valuation to new heights. Sources indicate that Kalshi is in advanced negotiations for a new funding round, targeting a post-money valuation of $40 billion, nearly double its valuation from a funding round finalized in May.
However, a potential risk has emerged: Kalshi has incurred significant marketing expenses to attract betting users, and the platform also faces new tax cost pressures in several core operating markets. Insiders revealed that Kalshi's total operating expenses for June reached $300 million, with the vast majority spent on marketing. If Kalshi maintains its current spending pace, its annualized operating costs would hit $3.6 billion. This large-scale marketing campaign includes endorsements from several celebrities, with Timothée Chalamet and Lionel Messi appearing in brand advertisements. The platform also secured sponsorship rights for the 2026 FIFA World Cup mid-cycle, placing ads in stadiums, on television, and online.
Media reported in June that Kalshi was in talks for a new funding round, targeting a valuation of $40 billion, with a potential completion as early as the third quarter. Elizabeth Diana, a Kalshi spokesperson, declined to comment. If this round is completed, Kalshi's private valuation would surpass the market cap of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and approach the roughly $85 billion market cap of trading platform Robinhood. Robinhood has recently transformed into a competitor for Kalshi, with its revenue structure shifting as event contract trading income grows, now exceeding revenue from stock and cryptocurrency trading.
Data from analytics firm Artemis shows that Robinhood has moved some of its prediction market orders from Kalshi to the Roseira exchange, a joint venture exchange established by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group. In the second quarter of this year, orders from Robinhood accounted for only 17.5% of Kalshi's total trading volume, down from nearly 50% in the same period last year. Kalshi's fundraising pace has been intense. In May, it secured $1 billion in new funding, led by Cota Capital. This followed another $1 billion funding round at the end of 2025, which valued the company at $11 billion. Fueled by rapid expansion in sports betting, Kalshi has initiated preliminary, informal discussions with investment banks regarding a potential initial public offering (IPO) as early as next year.
Last week, it was reported that Polymarket, a smaller competitor, is also in talks to raise approximately $1 billion in funding, at a post-money valuation of $20 billion. Kalshi's core revenue source is transaction fees. As interest in event contracts heats up, platforms like Robinhood and DraftKings are entering the market to compete for share, making marketing a sustained and critical battleground for all players.
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