As we enter 2026, the global precious metals market stands at a crossroads of high volatility and technical correction. Moneta Markets FX indicates that while the multiple growth drivers from 2025 remain solid, and ETF allocations suggest the market still holds potential, the extreme surges in gold, silver, and Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) late last year have significantly accumulated downside risks. Data shows that both platinum and silver hit new all-time highs in December; such rapid valuation increases make near-term correction pressures a force to be reckoned with.
Regarding the macroeconomic backdrop, market views suggest that potential threats from US tariff policies have triggered large-scale flows of precious metals into US vaults, directly squeezing liquidity in other global markets. Moneta Markets FX states that due to previous US government shutdowns delaying anti-dumping investigations on related metals, this policy uncertainty will continue to affect the trends of palladium and platinum. Concurrently, the platinum market is expected to remain in a supply deficit in 2026, while declining output from South Africa further amplifies price sensitivity to buying interest.
In terms of ETFs and speculative positions, Moneta Markets FX believes that although gold and silver ETF holdings grew by 20% in 2025, overall holdings still lag behind historical peaks, and speculative net-long positions have not reached extreme levels, leaving potential room for subsequent investor entry. However, technical indicators are flashing warning signals. Data reveals that platinum's Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly exceeded 90 in December, entering the most severe overbought zone in history. Historically, when prices deviate more than 20% from the 200-day moving average, it often signals a deep correction of 10% to 20%.
Geopolitical tensions have heated up again in January, becoming a core driver for gold to resume its upward trend. The market widely believes that recent US military and diplomatic actions in Latin America, coupled with strategic focus on mineral resources in Greenland, have not only complicated geopolitical relations but also boosted gold's safe-haven appeal. Moneta Markets FX notes that although spot gold has firmly held above $4,600 per ounce, due to the extreme gains in 2025, the market is more inclined towards consolidation at high levels to digest profit-taking in the short term.
The performance of the silver market has been equally dramatic. After silver prices hit a new high of $84 per ounce, they faced阶段性承压 in early 2026 due to CME's increased margin requirements and investor profit-taking. Furthermore, export quota restrictions on silver implemented by a major global supplier starting January 1 will reduce the number of authorized exporting enterprises to 44; this expectation of tightening supply supported a more than 7% surge in silver prices on Monday.
In summary, while the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, investors need to be wary of technical corrections following extreme overbought conditions. Moneta Markets FX believes that although gold and silver prices demonstrated strong resistance to declines on Monday, under the dual pressures of policy uncertainty and rising margin requirements, it is advisable to closely monitor fluctuations at key support levels and view the current record highs rationally and prudently.
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