The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a widening platinum supply-demand deficit to 9 tonnes for 2026. Global total platinum demand is projected to decrease by 9% year-on-year to 239 tonnes, primarily due to the unlikely recurrence of the substantial inflows into exchange inventories and ETFs seen last year. Meanwhile, total platinum supply is expected to increase by 2% (4 tonnes) to 229 tonnes, supported by growth in recycled supply.
WPIC released its Q1 2026 Platinum Quarterly and revised its full-year 2026 forecast. The platinum market recorded a surplus of 8 tonnes in Q1 2026. This outcome stemmed from two main factors: a non-seasonal increase in South African platinum production boosted total supply by 18% year-on-year (an 8-tonne rise to 54 tonnes), while total demand plummeted by 31% (a 20-tonne drop to 46 tonnes), with combined outflows from ETFs and exchange inventories of 12 tonnes being the single largest contributor to the demand decline.
Nevertheless, several market trends from Q1 2026 are anticipated to reverse during the year. Consequently, the full-year 2026 platinum market is forecast to record its fourth consecutive annual supply shortfall, with a deficit of 9 tonnes, a slight upward revision of 2 tonnes from previous estimates.
Total platinum demand for 2026 is projected to fall by 9% (23 tonnes) to 239 tonnes. The key driver is a reversal in investment flows for exchange inventories and ETFs, with both channels expected to see net outflows of 3 tonnes each, contrasting sharply with the significant inflows of the previous year. Bolstered by increased recycled supply, total platinum supply is forecast to rise by 2% (4 tonnes) to 229 tonnes. Above-ground stocks are projected to decline to 54 tonnes by the end of 2026, representing less than three months of global demand.
Mine supply for 2026 is expected to remain largely flat. Recycled supply recovery has been weaker than anticipated despite higher platinum prices.
In Q1 2026, mine supply increased by 22% (7 tonnes) to 41 tonnes year-on-year. This was primarily due to a low base from Q1 2025, which was impacted by operational disruptions and adjusted mine maintenance schedules, boosting production for the current quarter. Recycled supply grew by 7% to 13 tonnes (a 1-tonne increase) but still fell short of market expectations. While higher platinum prices encouraged increased recycling of spent autocatalysts, the lower platinum group metal content (specifically platinum) recoverable per catalyst compared to previous years partially offset the overall growth in recycled supply.
For the full year 2026, mine supply is forecast to be essentially flat year-on-year at 173 tonnes, as a slight increase in South African output is expected to be offset by declines in other regions. Recycled volume is projected to increase by 9% (5 tonnes) to 57 tonnes but faces downside risks. Recyclers continue to face working capital pressures despite significantly higher PGM prices, and the trend of lower platinum content and recovery rates per catalyst, as mentioned, persists.
Trends in hybrid and heavy-duty vehicles underpin resilience in automotive platinum demand.
Automotive platinum demand in Q1 2026 decreased by 6% (2 tonnes) to 22 tonnes year-on-year. Despite current global macroeconomic uncertainty and oil price shock concerns stemming from the Middle East situation, the decline in full-year 2026 automotive platinum demand is expected to narrow, falling by 2% (2 tonnes) to 92 tonnes. While pure internal combustion engine (ICE) light-duty vehicle production is forecast to shrink by 8%, this decline will be largely offset by a 12% growth in hybrid vehicle production. Additionally, the fuel-heavy vehicle sectors in the US and Indian markets are expected to provide extra demand support.
Rising precious metal prices and cost-of-living pressures weigh on jewelry sector platinum demand.
Global jewelry platinum demand contracted by 13% (3 tonnes) to 14 tonnes in Q1 2026 year-on-year. Weak end-consumer demand in most regions offset partial growth in the European luxury market. The Chinese market was particularly weak in Q1, with jewelry platinum demand plunging by 42%. The demand decline was driven by multiple factors: higher platinum prices, weakened consumer confidence, ongoing destocking in the jewelry supply chain, and a shift in consumer preference from heavier, quasi-investment jewelry towards investment platinum bars. Furthermore, the removal of the 13% VAT refund policy for platinum by the Shanghai Gold Exchange effective November 1, 2025, also impacted jewelry demand.
Suppressed by both higher platinum prices and rising living costs, global jewelry platinum demand for full-year 2026 is forecast to decline by 12% (8 tonnes) to 61 tonnes. While European jewelry demand is expected to reach a new record high and Indian demand is projected to recover with 5% growth, these gains will be insufficient to offset demand declines in the US (down 7%), Japan (down 5%), and China (down 43%) markets.
A cyclical recovery in glass industry demand drives renewed growth in industrial sector demand.
Industrial platinum demand in Q1 2026 increased by 41% (5 tonnes) to 16 tonnes year-on-year, with glass industry demand reaching 3 tonnes during the quarter. In Q1 2025, glass industry platinum demand had turned negative due to plant closures. This growth was enough to offset weakness in chemical industry demand (down 4% year-on-year to 4 tonnes) and a significant contraction in petroleum industry demand (down 28% year-on-year to 1 tonne).
Full-year 2026 industrial platinum demand is forecast to increase by 9% (6 tonnes) to 70 tonnes, primarily driven by growth in glass industry demand (up 83% to 12 tonnes). With the exception of petroleum industry demand, projected to fall by 28%, and "Other" industrial demand expected to remain flat, all other industrial sub-sectors are anticipated to see demand growth. Given the risk of production and supply disruptions in the petroleum industry due to the Middle East conflict, the full-year petroleum industry demand forecast has been lowered by 1 tonne to 4 tonnes (compared to 6 tonnes in 2025).
Platinum bar and coin demand shows strong growth, with momentum expected to continue.
The platinum investment market saw a net sell-off of 7 tonnes in Q1 2026, with combined outflows from exchange inventories and ETFs totaling 12 tonnes, while platinum bar and coin demand reached 5 tonnes, showing a clear divergence in trends. Total investment demand for 2026 is forecast to decrease by 54% to 16 tonnes. As tariff-related concerns gradually subside and with platinum prices higher than the previous year, investors are inclined to take profits, leading to expected net outflows of 3 tonnes each from exchange inventories and ETFs. Although the scale of this outflow is modest, it represents a significant shift from the substantial inflows seen in 2025.
In contrast, platinum's strong fundamentals are attracting value investors globally, driving an expected surge of 27% (5 tonnes) in investment demand for platinum bars and coins to 22 tonnes, reaching a six-year high.
Trevor Raymond, CEO of the World Platinum Investment Council, added: "Platinum's strong price performance in 2025, with prices remaining firm in 2026, has significantly heightened global market attention on platinum's investment value. A growing investor base is recognizing platinum's precious metal attributes alongside its attractive supply-demand fundamentals, as evidenced by robust ETF investment demand in 2025 and the anticipated strength in platinum bar and coin demand this year."
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