EB SECURITIES released a research report stating that while global tech investment enthusiasm remains strong in 2025, a structural divergence of "strong computing power, weak applications" has emerged. Next year, opportunities lie in discovering AI-native interaction paradigms in the consumer sector and empowering high-value vertical scenarios in the enterprise sector. For 2026, the firm recommends focusing on three high-certainty investment themes:
1) **Industrial Empowerment**: Prioritize companies with industry expertise and proprietary data. 2) **AI Application Globalization**: Favor AI application firms with a high proportion of overseas revenue. 3) **Edge AI**: The probability of breakout products increases, benefiting AI hardware brands and algorithm providers.
Key insights from EB SECURITIES include:
**2025: Strong Computing Power, Weak Applications** Global tech giants are significantly expanding capital expenditures, directly benefiting upstream computing chips and supporting hardware. However, the computer/software sector faces three challenges: 1) Software companies' earnings growth lags far behind the computing power supply chain. 2) Valuations of software firms remain relatively high compared to hardware. 3) Concerns over "large models cannibalizing software" persist. As of Q3 2025, domestic mutual funds underweight the computer sector by 1.7 percentage points.
**2026: AI Applications Poised for Breakthrough** Declining computing costs are expected to pave the way for application prosperity. Opportunities include AI-native interaction models in consumer markets and high-value vertical applications in enterprise sectors.
**Three Major Opportunities for China’s AI Applications** 1) **Industrial Deep Dive**: China’s complete industrial ecosystem offers high-value real-world data, application scenarios, and energy supply, fostering diverse AI agent forms. Modern industrial system development is prioritized in the 15th Five-Year Plan, with "AI+" expected to receive strong policy support. 2) **Global Expansion**: AI application globalization reflects Chinese AI teams' "extreme efficiency + global pricing" arbitrage, supported by China’s expanding engineer dividend. Overseas revenue growth now outpaces domestic growth for many computer firms, with opportunities in AI tools, smart devices, cross-border e-commerce, and payments. 3) **Edge AI Revolution**: Tech giants and AI startups are actively exploring edge AI forms, from AI-integrated consumer electronics (e.g., AI phones, AI PCs) to AI-native hardware (e.g., smart glasses, wearables). As hardware and algorithms mature, these products show high shipment growth potential.
**Risk Warnings**: Geopolitical risks, macroeconomic uncertainties, and intensifying industry competition.
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