1. Asphalt futures closing prices on the afternoon of January 29: The main BU2603 contract closed at 3,478 yuan/ton in the afternoon session, up 114 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price, a gain of 3.39%. Open interest stood at 170,058 lots, down 5,221 lots month-on-month, while trading volume was 402,578 lots, a decrease of 51,997 lots month-on-month. 2. SCIE's heavy traffic asphalt spot settlement prices: Northeast China, 3,506-3,550 yuan/ton; Shandong, 3,130-3,300 yuan/ton; South China, 3,250-3,350 yuan/ton; East China, 3,200-3,230 yuan/ton. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, with market participants concerned about potential US military action against Iran. Given Iran's substantial production capacity and its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit chokepoint, any military conflict would have a significant impact on petroleum markets. Consequently, the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices has surged amid heightened risks of a US strike on Iran. Furthermore, a broad-based improvement in macroeconomic sentiment across commodities has recently emerged, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals leading the rally. This has prompted some capital to flow into relatively undervalued sectors like energy and chemicals, amplifying market gains. Catalyzed by both geopolitical and macroeconomic factors, international crude oil prices have continued their ascent, thereby strengthening cost-side support for asphalt. Additionally, following the US's gradual control over Venezuela's petroleum resources, the supply of core raw materials for domestic asphalt production has tightened, necessitating the search for alternative sources in regions like the Middle East. Should another crisis erupt in the Middle East, it could exacerbate the existing shortage of feedstocks. However, it is important to note that current market pricing is driven more by expectations than by immediate fundamentals, as terminal demand for asphalt remains weak, and the basis has notably weakened after the continuous rise in futures prices. If geopolitical tensions ease, there is potential for a correction in the futures market. Strategy Outright: Short-term outlook is range-bound with a bullish bias; monitor developments in the Iran situation. Spread: None Inter-commodity: None Futures-Physical: None Options: None Risks Substantial volatility in crude oil prices, macroeconomic risks, risks related to overseas feedstock supply, changes in terminal asphalt demand, fluctuations in plant operating rates, etc. Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1289 Disclaimer: This report is prepared based on information that the Company believes to be reliable and publicly available; however, the Company makes no warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, conclusions, and forecasts contained herein reflect views and judgments as of the date of publication. The Company may issue research reports at different times that contain opinions, assessments, or forecasts inconsistent with those herein. The Company does not guarantee that the information contained in this report remains current. The Company may modify the information contained herein without notice, and investors should monitor for any updates or modifications. While the Company strives for objectivity and impartiality in the report's content, the views, conclusions, and recommendations provided are for reference only and should not replace an investor's independent judgment. Neither the Company nor the author shall bear any legal liability for any consequences resulting from an investor's reliance on or use of this report. Copyright of this report is vested solely with the Company. Without the prior written consent of the Company, no institution or individual may infringe upon the Company's copyright by any means, including reprinting, reproduction, publication, citation, or redistribution to others. Where consent is granted for citation or publication, use must be within permitted scope, the source must be attributed as "Huatai Futures Research Institute," and no alterations that distort the original meaning are permitted. The Company reserves the right to pursue legal action. All trademarks, service marks, and logos used in this report are the property of the Company. Huatai Futures Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Choose Huatai for futures account opening: Professional and trustworthy.
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