According to a research report released by Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. (ASX: 601211), the AI glasses industry is transitioning from its introduction phase to a growth phase. Global AI glasses sales rose from 1.53 million units in 2024 to approximately 8.46 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 453%. Sales are projected to reach 16 million units in 2026 and 90 million units by 2030, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030. Supply chain value is concentrating in high-barrier segments such as core components, brand ecosystems, and channel services, with technical capability and customer binding becoming core benchmarks. The competitive landscape remains dominated by Meta, while Chinese manufacturers are accelerating their pursuit. The main viewpoints of Guotai Haitong Securities are as follows.
Industry shifting from introduction to growth phase, AI glasses moving from tech novelty to mass-market smart terminal
According to data from Wellsenn XR, global AI glasses sales increased from 1.53 million units in 2024 to approximately 8.46 million units in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 453%. Sales are expected to reach 16 million units in 2026 and 90 million units by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030. In the first half of 2026, global AI glasses shipments continued to grow 263% year-on-year, confirming the sustained high prosperity of the industry. On the demand side, scenarios such as first-person shooting, voice interaction, and real-time translation have率先 completed user validation, and multimodal AI is further driving glasses toward becoming a portable Agent entry point. On the supply side, large models, dedicated SoCs, and optical display technologies continue to mature, with leading manufacturers such as Meta and Xiaomi iterating intensively, continuously enriching product forms and price ranges. On the policy side, in 2026, smart glasses were included for the first time in the national digital and smart product purchase subsidy program, further lowering the consumption threshold.
Supply chain value concentrating in high-barrier segments such as core components, brand ecosystems, and channel services, with technical capability and customer binding becoming core benchmarks
Upstream core components are the first to benefit from整机 volume growth, with chip platform manufacturers such as Qualcomm occupying key ecosystem positions. Lenses benefit from personalized demand from populations with myopia and astigmatism, with customization, high refractive index, and display adaptation capabilities enhancing per-unit value. The strategic value of the brand side extends beyond hardware profits to competing for the next-generation personal computing and AI Agent entry point. Meanwhile, optometry, lens fitting, and after-sales services are difficult to fully digitize, further highlighting the channel value of mature fitting networks.
Competitive landscape still led by Meta, Chinese manufacturers accelerating pursuit, industry entering multi-brand, multi-form competition phase
According to Counterpoint data, in the first half of 2026, AI glasses without displays accounted for 96% of global AI glasses shipments, with Meta holding approximately 94% share. Meanwhile, AR+AI glasses shipments grew 449% year-on-year, with Chinese manufacturers such as Rokid leveraging local supply chains to率先 drive commercialization of display-type products. Tech giants such as Samsung and Google are also accelerating their layouts. Google has announced that its related smart glasses will launch in autumn 2026, and Apple also has plans for a smart glasses layout. We believe that the key to future competition will be jointly determined by three capabilities: hardware definition, AI ecosystem, and channel services, addressing the core issues of "wearability," "true usability," and "availability with accurate fitting," respectively.
Regarding related companies, overseas leaders have率先 completed commercialization validation, while domestic optical manufacturers are accelerating to capture industry dividends
Meta leverages its "model + ecosystem + entry point" advantages to continuously expand its AI glasses matrix and strengthen its positioning as a personal Agent entry point. EssilorLuxottica, through the Ray-Ban and Oakley brands, eyewear design and manufacturing capabilities, and global channels, is deeply bound with Meta and has率先 realized AI glasses volume growth. Conant Optical (ASX: 161027) has entered a mass production ramp-up phase for its XR business, leveraging customized lens capabilities and global production capacity layout to enter multiple leading customers. Mingyue Optical Lens (ASX: 02611), relying on high-refractive lens technology, a mature fitting network, and exclusive optical cooperation with Xiaomi AI glasses, further opens a second growth curve for AI glasses on the basis of upgrading its traditional core business.
Risk warnings: risk of industry penetration falling short of expectations, risk of technological iteration and route switching, risk of intensified competition and price wars, risk of policy subsidy reduction, risk of dependence on major customers and cooperation changes, and geopolitical and trade policy risks.
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