Goldman Sachs has issued a research report indicating that BUD APAC's first-quarter sales performance met expectations, with EBITDA exceeding market concerns. Group-level and West Asia-Pacific sales volumes increased by 0.1% and 1.7% year-on-year, respectively. Management has identified restoring group-level sales growth as a primary goal for 2026, with stabilizing sales in China being a key focus. The target price has been raised from HK$8.5 to HK$8.8, with a "Buy" rating maintained.
The firm anticipates that the recovery in China's market sales by 2026 will be driven by several factors. These include early signs of accelerated premiumization in the first quarter, with ultra-premium product sales recording a double-digit recovery. O2O channels also showed strong double-digit growth in the first quarter, contributing significantly to the growth of at-home consumption channels. Additionally, the company continues to invest in branding and replenishment channels to prepare for the peak season and major sporting events.
However, the report cautions that ongoing pressure on China's restaurant channels remains a major drag, and the recovery path for second-quarter sales may be volatile. Goldman Sachs has raised its sales forecast for BUD APAC for 2026–2028 by approximately 2%, mainly reflecting foreign exchange adjustments, including a roughly 5% appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar, partially offset by a about 3% depreciation of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar. The sales volume outlook remains unchanged. Net profit forecasts have been increased by 3% to 4%, primarily due to better-than-expected operational efficiency.
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