On the morning of January 28, MIXUE GROUP (HK02097) opened slightly lower with a gap down, and the decline rapidly widened thereafter. As of the time of writing, MIXUE GROUP was down over 10%, hitting an intraday low of HKD 396.
The primary reason for today's decline in MIXUE GROUP's share price is likely related to UBS downgrading the company's rating. It is understood that UBS analyst Christine Peng issued a research report on January 27, downgrading MIXUE GROUP's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" and lowering the target price from HKD 490 to HKD 468.
The report pointed out that the company faces risks of gross margin contraction, mainly due to rising raw material costs (especially core ingredients like lemons), the tapering of food delivery subsidies, and intensifying industry competition. Apart from MIXUE GROUP, other tea beverage concept stocks in the Hong Kong market also performed weakly today. Among them, Guming fell over 4% at one point, CHABAIDAO dropped over 2%, while Auntie Shanghai and NAIXUE'S TEA both declined over 1%. Despite UBS's downgrade, domestic institutions generally remain optimistic about the company's development prospects. Among them, Western Securities released a research report on January 26, stating that MIXUE GROUP is accelerating its overseas expansion, with store performance exceeding expectations. In December 2025, Mixue Bingcheng opened three consecutive stores in the US, entering two core cities: Los Angeles and New York. In terms of menu setup, the US stores added three high-sweetness options (120%, 150%, 200%) and offered plant-based milks like oat and almond, highlighting higher-frequency items such as ice cream, lemonade, and smoothies to better adapt to local dietary habits and increase repurchase rates. Price-wise, the main items are controlled between $1.99 and $3.99, not exceeding $5. Simultaneously, Mixue has increased promotional efforts to strengthen brand awareness, such as placing advertisements in core business districts and boosting social media exposure. Western Securities believes that the successful entry into the US market is beneficial for MIXUE GROUP to solidify its international recognition and effectively promote expansion into other countries. In mid-November 2025, MIXUE GROUP opened a dedicated channel for overseas franchising, commencing franchise recruitment business in 16 countries and regions. Southeast Asia is a core area for MIXUE GROUP's concentrated store expansion. Taking Vietnam as an example, there is strong demand for cold beverages and significant room for improvement in the brand chain rate. The total cost for a Mixue Bingcheng franchise store is approximately 10 billion Vietnamese Dong (about 265,000 RMB). Leveraging local supply chain warehousing and distribution, a standardized franchise support system, and unified brand output, the company possesses advantages in stable quality and efficient management. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and South America are all potential markets. In May 2025, MIXUE GROUP signed a procurement order for 4 billion coffee beans with Brazil and is expected to initiate the construction of a supply chain factory; the first store is scheduled to open in a São Paulo shopping mall in March 2026. Based on this, Western Securities is optimistic about the company's supply chain and store operation capabilities underpinning its extreme cost-effectiveness, coupled with the continuous release of the brand effect. It raised the company's profit forecast, estimating net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be RMB 6.1 billion, RMB 7.0 billion, and RMB 8.1 billion, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 25x, 22x, and 19x for the company, and a "Buy" rating was assigned. Furthermore, Soochow Securities also issued a research report on January 5, giving MIXUE GROUP a "Buy" rating.
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