For stock trading, consult the Golden Qilin analyst research reports — authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! On September 28, A-shares extended their pre-Mid-Autumn Festival weakness, with cautious trading sentiment and daily turnover reaching 1.72 trillion yuan, while 4,554 individual stocks closed lower; the telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals sectors retreated sharply, while the oil, power, and coal sectors bucked the trend to support the market. Although there was a minor intraday rebound, it failed to reverse the downward trend. Analysts interviewed noted that in the two trading days before the National Day holiday, the market will most likely continue its low-volume bottoming and range-bound consolidation pattern, with sector-level rotation between high and low valuations persisting. Investors are advised to hold light positions over the holiday and maintain balanced allocation. During the holiday, US Treasury yields, dollar movements, international oil prices, and geopolitical developments may become important variables for A-share repricing after the holiday.
Telecommunications and Electronics Sectors Plunge Sharply
A-shares opened lower and drifted down, with a slight intraday pull-up, overall maintaining a weak tone. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.67% to close at 3,823.62 points, the ChiNext Index dropped 4.53% to 3,139.82 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.44%. The SSE 50 declined 1.26%, the CSI 300 dropped 2.22%, the STAR 50 fell 4.06%, and the Beijing 50 declined 2.76%. Today's trading volume increased slightly by 47.51 billion yuan, with combined daily turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rising to 1.72 trillion yuan. In terms of leveraged funds, as of September 24, the margin financing and securities lending balance across the three markets dropped to 2.64 trillion yuan. On the board, technology sectors such as optical communication modules, FG5 concepts, and passive component concepts fell sharply, while rare metals, synthetic fibers, and PCBs also ranked among the top decliners. Power, coal, oil and gas resources, natural gas, insurance holdings, shale gas, and pork concepts supported the market. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals rose nearly 1%, while utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and coal edged slightly higher. Banking, food and beverage, transportation, and pharmaceutical and biological sectors all posted slight declines. Sixteen Shenwan primary industries fell no less than 2%, with the telecommunications sector plunging 7.36%, as 12 stocks including Fiberhome Communications and Hengtong Optic-Electric hit the daily limit down; electronics fell nearly 5%, with 10 stocks hitting the limit down; building materials, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment sectors also dropped sharply. The market's wealth-destroying effect was evident, with 4,554 stocks closing lower and 57 hitting the limit down; 898 stocks closed higher, with 35 hitting the limit up. Market trading sentiment was cautious, with only 5 stocks recording daily turnover of no less than 10 billion yuan, all of which were tech stocks, and all generally fell sharply. Zhongji Innolight dropped 9.03% to 815 yuan per share, Eoptolink fell 8.11% to 399.7 yuan per share, semiconductor stocks Changxin Technology and GigaDevice also fell significantly, and electronic components stock Dongshan Precision plunged 9.52% to 168.28 yuan per share.
Internal and External Disturbances Batter Tech Stocks
On the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, A-shares fell broadly again, with the sharp pullback in tech stocks becoming the core factor dragging the broader market lower. How should this market adjustment be interpreted? Long Fang, investment director at Guangdong Zhonglai Investment, analyzed that the external situation during the Mid-Autumn holiday was not calm, as Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil prices rose sharply, and US Treasury yields hit new highs, leading to rising expectations of a Fed rate hike in October, which constituted a major negative for the tech sector. Although some funds entered the market to bargain-hunt during the session, briefly lifting the index, overall market sentiment remained pessimistic, selling pressure was heavy, and the rebound could not be sustained. Jia Xiaolong, director of the Black Mountain Capital Research Institute, said that today's broad market decline was a "stress test under the resonance of internal and external disturbances," rather than a trend reversal; the intraday dip-and-recover precisely indicates that panic selling is being cleared out and buying support is entering. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.16%, a new high since 2007, compounded by emotional disturbance from a US Senate bill related to optical modules, directly suppressing the previously leading tech sector. Mo Xiaocheng, general manager of Huanrui Tianze, believes that funds reduced positions ahead of the holiday mainly due to concerns about overseas uncertainty, and more importantly, concentrated devaluation of the previously strong tech and growth sectors and profit-taking. However, some support also emerged during the session, indicating that after the rapid decline, some funds have begun looking for opportunities. The current market is more a reflection of declining risk appetite and valuation repair in high-valuation sectors, while overall fundamentals have not shown obvious deterioration.
Hold Cash or Hold Stocks Over the Holiday?
With only two trading days left before the National Day long holiday, what potential risks does the market face? How will overseas markets perform during the holiday? How should investors manage their positions? "In the two trading days before National Day, the market will most likely continue its low-volume bottoming and range-bound consolidation pattern, with sector structure continuing to rotate between high and low valuations." Long Fang advises investors to control positions and hold light over the holiday. In terms of operations, maintain balanced allocation — on one hand, hold high-dividend stocks such as banks, power, oil, and coal; on the other hand, buy on dips some AI hardware, robotics, and other tech growth stocks with improving performance and sufficient price corrections, avoid pure thematic high-flying stocks, and wait for market volume to recover after the holiday before increasing positions. In the last two trading days before the holiday, Mo Xiaocheng expects the market to remain dominated by consolidation and absorption of selling pressure, and short-term gains or losses are difficult to predict precisely, so he would not simply choose "cash or stocks." If corporate fundamentals have not changed and valuations are already reasonable, there is no need to significantly reduce positions because of the holiday; for varieties with large prior gains and excessive valuation透支, risk control is more necessary. After the holiday, as the third-quarter earnings verification phase begins, the market will gradually shift from sentiment- and theme-driven trading back to performance and fundamentals. Yang Ziyi, research director at Zhongrui Heyin, stated bluntly that the macroeconomic environment still limits index elasticity, and the market will continue its consolidation trend; maintain medium-term optimism, remain cautious and observant in the short term, and continue to exercise patience and position flexibility while waiting for market opportunities. Mingyu Asset analyzed that with the National Day long holiday approaching, A-shares may continue to consolidate and diverge, with attention on directions featuring high prosperity, high certainty, and low crowding. Fang Lei, deputy general manager of Xingstone Investment, also said that as the long holiday approaches, combined with overseas interest rates at high levels and unclear trends, current market risk-aversion sentiment is somewhat heavy, off-market capital inflow willingness is insufficient, existing capital has profit-taking needs, and overall market trading sentiment may be relatively subdued, with inter-sector performance likely to diverge. Jia Xiaolong reminded investors to stay clear-headed, as volatility in high-flying thematic stocks has not yet fully cleared, and blind bottom-fishing is not advisable. Moreover, during the eight-day National Day holiday, overseas markets will trade normally, and high US bond yields, repeated monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical tensions are all variables hanging over the holiday period — going fully invested over the holiday is absolutely inadvisable. He suggests spending the holiday with "quality holdings and flexible positions," as the last two days before the holiday are a window for positioning, not for exiting. The most panicked chips have already been concentrated and released before the holiday, and the last two trading days will most likely show a consolidation pattern of "exhausted selling pressure and stabilizing sentiment," with the tail end of September 30 often presenting a low-absorption window for betting on post-holiday capital return. Jia Xiaolong suggests maintaining an overall neutral-to-positive position of 60% to 70%, anchoring on one side to tech mainlines with strong third-quarter earnings certainty such as domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, and storage — pullbacks are precisely opportunities to select genuine value; on the other side, allocate to dividend assets such as banks, energy, and utilities to add a "ballast" to the portfolio and hedge against external tail risks during the long holiday. "As the long holiday approaches, the short-term market may still be dominated by consolidation and structural rotation." Zhang Pengyuan, a researcher at PaiPaiWang Wealth, told reporters that on one hand, before the holiday, capital risk appetite typically tends to be cautious, compounded by factors such as quarter-end institutional assessments, market trading activity may decline phase by phase, and directions with large prior gains and crowded trading may still face certain volatility; on the other hand, the current market is not lacking positive factors, as high-level China-US interactions continue to advance, and subsequent changes in China-US economic and trade relations are expected to become an important variable affecting market risk appetite. After entering the holiday, overseas markets will still trade normally, and changes in US Treasury yields, the dollar, international oil prices, and geopolitical situations may all become important references for A-share repricing after the holiday. Therefore, after the holiday, the market will first need to digest external information accumulated during the holiday period, and short-term volatility may amplify somewhat.
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