Nickel prices on the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network showed a slight increase on July 7th, with spot market participants actively purchasing to cover essential needs as prices dipped, though an overall cautious sentiment prevailed.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network
SHFE Nickel Performance: In today's afternoon session, SHFE nickel futures traded within a narrow range. The most active September 2025 contract (SHFE: NI2509) opened at 126,150 yuan per tonne. During the session, it reached a high of 127,840 yuan per tonne and a low of 125,550 yuan per tonne, ultimately settling at 126,700 yuan per tonne, up 10 yuan, representing a gain of 0.01%. Trading volume for the NI2509 contract was 246,508 lots.
Market Price Summary: According to statistics from the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, on July 7th, the comprehensive 1# nickel price range on the Changjiang market was 126,650 - 129,250 yuan per tonne, with an average price of 127,950 yuan per tonne, marking an increase of 200 yuan from the previous day. The spot 1# nickel price on the Changjiang market was quoted at 126,650 - 129,250 yuan per tonne, averaging 127,950 yuan per tonne, also up 200 yuan. In Guangdong, the spot nickel price range was 129,500 - 129,900 yuan per tonne, with an average of 129,700 yuan per tonne, reflecting a similar 200 yuan increase.
Nickel Market Analysis: On the macroeconomic front, the global market on July 7th, 2026, was influenced by multiple intertwined variables, intensifying the battle between bullish and bearish forces. Internationally, divisions at the NATO summit, lingering uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy expectations, and large-scale US Treasury auctions have contributed to a strong and volatile US dollar index, which continues to weigh on commodity valuations. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a retreat in oil prices have further diminished the inflation premium for metals. Domestically, liquidity remains stable and controllable. Infrastructure funds are being deployed but coincide with a seasonally slow construction period. The implementation of new capital market regulations, coupled with adjustments to automotive policies, has fostered a cautious trading mood with noticeable capital diversion, putting overall pressure on industrial metals.
The supply and demand for raw materials in the nickel industry chain currently exhibit a structurally differentiated pattern. Lateritic nickel ore supply is trending towards contraction due to tightening policy controls in Indonesia, with resource consumption remaining high. The sulfide nickel ore market is operating steadily, with new capacity additions progressing slowly, resulting in no significant supply-side increments. High-grade nickel matte capacity is being released robustly, forming a core supply support for the market. Nickel-cobalt hydroxide production, constrained by high sulfur prices, is seeing weakened economic viability and a decline in output. Recycled nickel supply remains stable, serving as an important supplement for nickel sulfate feedstock. Overall, the industry chain is characterized by tightness in the upstream mining segment and divergence in smelting capacity. Midstream adjustments have not effectively reduced inventories, while downstream end-user industries have entered a seasonally weak demand period. The fundamental support is insufficient to drive a sustained rally in nickel prices.
Current Spot Trading Conditions
As nickel prices fluctuate and correct, spot market buying to cover essential needs on price dips has been relatively active. However, the overall market sentiment remains one of watchfulness.
Short-Term Macro Outlook and Nickel Price Forecast
Macro Focus: Internationally, the focus is on Federal Reserve policy signals and developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Domestically, attention is on the implementation pace of major projects and new energy vehicle production and sales data.
Key Variables: Adjustments to Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, fluctuations in sulfur prices, capital flows in US stock markets, and the operating rates of the domestic lithium battery industry chain.
Price Trend Prediction: Nickel prices are expected to maintain a narrow-range, volatile, and downward-biased trend in the short term. In the second half of the year, if Indonesia supplements nickel ore quotas and coupled with weakening prices for auxiliary materials reducing costs, inventory pressure will become more pronounced. This will limit the upside potential for nickel prices, making it highly likely that prices will continue fluctuating weakly within a range.
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