On April 30th, international precious metals halted their decline and began to rise. On May 1st, international gold prices continued their slight upward trend, reaching $4,624.463 per ounce at the time of writing, while international silver prices stood at $74.275 per ounce.
As of May 1st, domestic branded gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1,400 yuan per gram. Chow Sang Sang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,415 yuan per gram, Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry price reached 1,419 yuan per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang's quotation was also at 1,410 yuan per gram.
Multiple factors have recently influenced the price trends of precious metals. Regarding the geopolitical situation, Iran has proposed a three-phase negotiation framework to the United States through mediation channels, but former US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the new "step-by-step" proposal. Trump believes the new plan addresses the nuclear issue last, whereas the US should insist on prioritizing it. However, the US administration has not yet issued a formal response to the proposal. Former US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the US will not accept the conditions set by Iran for reopening the strait. Due to the lack of progress in negotiations, shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, leading to an expansion in international crude oil price increases.
Conversely, the UAE announced its decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+, which initially caused a dip in international crude oil prices. Based on long-term expectations of sustained high oil prices, markets generally anticipate that central banks will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period, further pressuring precious metal prices.
Regarding the Federal Reserve, the US Department of Justice unexpectedly announced the termination of a criminal investigation targeting the Fed and its Chair, Jerome Powell, referring the matter to the Fed's Office of Inspector General. This move clears a key obstacle for the confirmation process of Judy Shelton, a nominee for the next Fed Chair by Trump.
Influenced by this news, expectations for a Fed rate cut within the year slightly increased. The two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting commenced, likely marking Powell's final meeting as Chair, with markets fully pricing in expectations for unchanged interest rates. Therefore, the focus of this meeting is on the Fed's perspective regarding oil prices' impact on inflation, potential changes in expectations due to the leadership transition, and whether Powell will remain as a Fed Governor. The Bank of Japan announced a continued pause on rate hikes, maintaining the current interest rate level of 0.75%, aligning with market expectations.
According to CME's "FedWatch Tool", the probability of the Fed maintaining unchanged rates in June 2026 is 98.8%, with a 1.2% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. For September 2026, the probability of unchanged rates is 94.5%, with a 5.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 0.1% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut.
Huang Ting, a precious metals analyst at the Lead and Zinc Information Department of Shanghai Metals Market, analyzed that in the short term, the US-Iran geopolitical stalemate continues, but a long-term easing is ultimately the most probable outcome. From an economic impact perspective, the current round of geopolitical conflict has a controllable drag on global GDP growth, not yet reaching a level that would trigger a global economic recession, demonstrating the global system's stronger risk resilience. The short-term price volatility of precious metals might not reach historical extreme levels.
Domestically, the "May Day" holiday period has begun, coupled with recent requirements to temporarily slow the issuance of certain invoices, leading to cautious trading sentiment. Feedback from traders indicates a significant weakening in market transactions.
Domestic silver spot inventories continue to rise, while global ETF holdings remain relatively stable. It is anticipated that silver prices will temporarily lack the momentum to restart a sustained upward trend in the short term.
From a medium to long-term perspective, persistently high energy prices and damage to overseas supply chains suggest that the recovery period might be longer than anticipated. Downward pressures from inflation and economic slowdown, combined with support from de-dollarization trends and central bank gold purchasing demand, provide significant underlying support for precious metals. The price center is expected to gradually move higher within the year.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Huang Jiaqi also believes that, looking ahead, a declining trend in Trump's public approval ratings might drive the US to proactively break the deadlock. Potential additional measures to fill fiscal gaps following global tariff rebates could disrupt trade patterns, potentially leading to silver being repriced as a safe-haven asset, suggesting there is still room for price increases in the future.
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