According to Woofun AI, Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has released a new research report asserting that Tesla (TSLA.US) shares could rise nearly 1,100% by 2031, and predicting that the company will merge with SpaceX (SPCX.US) within five years.
The report, published on Monday, breaks down the valuation logic in detail, setting a base case price target of $4,400 per share, a bear case of $3,300 per share, and a bull case of up to $5,000 per share.
Given that Tesla (TSLA.US) was trading at $367.29 per share in Monday's overnight session, the base case implies upside of approximately 1,096%, the bull case suggests gains of nearly 1,261%, and even the bear case points to roughly 800% upside.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the robotaxi business is expected to account for about 80% of Tesla's (TSLA.US) enterprise value, generating $753 billion in revenue and driving total valuation to $16.4 trillion, with the robotaxi segment contributing $13.31 trillion.
Meanwhile, the Optimus robot-as-a-service business is expected to contribute $215 billion in revenue.
On the autonomous driving front, Tesla (TSLA.US) accumulated 1 million miles of driverless driving within just about seven months, four times faster than Alphabet's (GOOGL.US) Waymo; its Cybercab's operating cost per mile at the same utilization rate is 40% lower than Waymo's.
Under the base case, Tesla (TSLA.US) is expected to sell 10.2 million vehicles by 2031, of which 8.1 million will be robotaxis.
Regarding investment in robot computing power and chip manufacturing, the total addressable market for humanoid robots is estimated at $26 trillion, and Tesla's (TSLA.US) external deployments are expected to reach 1 million units by 2031.
Ark Invest notes that Optimus can achieve human-level operational capability with approximately 4,000 megawatts, or 4 gigawatts, of computing power.
As for the Terafab chip manufacturing plant, SpaceX (SPCX.US) may bear a larger share of capital expenditure, while Tesla (TSLA.US) will focus on building the initial R&D team, with related costs estimated at $3 billion, and its AI spending is expected to grow to nearly $225 billion by 2031.
Although the model evaluates Tesla (TSLA.US) as a standalone entity, a merger between SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) is considered highly likely within the next five years.
Cash flow generated by Tesla (TSLA.US) will support SpaceX (SPCX.US) in building orbital data centers, while SpaceX's (SPCX.US) cutting-edge AI models will also help promote Optimus.
Overall, by 2031, SpaceX (SPCX.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) are expected to jointly generate $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIT, with SpaceX (SPCX.US) contributing 62% of revenue and 69% of EBIT.
However, this grand narrative still faces significant risks.
A slowdown in robotaxi adoption is the primary uncertainty facing the model.
Additionally, Musk's sudden departure, natural disasters, or pandemic outbreaks could all become major adverse factors that disrupt these projections.
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