UBS has released a research report indicating a target price of HK$22.4 for Hysan Development (00014) with an "Neutral" investment rating. For Wharf REIC (01997), the target price is set at HK$23, also with a "Neutral" rating. Link REIT (00823) has a target price of HK$42 and an "Buy" rating. According to UBS, the Census and Statistics Department reported yesterday that the provisional estimate for total retail sales value in March was HK$33.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, marking the 11th consecutive month of growth and surpassing the market expectation of a 9.4% rise. The revised estimate for the combined retail sales value for the first two months showed an 11.8% year-on-year increase. The provisional estimate for total retail sales value in the first quarter rose 12.1% year-on-year, exceeding the bank's previous forecast of high single-digit growth. This better-than-expected growth was primarily driven by: i) strong gold prices; ii) sustained robust demand for the new iPhone; and iii) advance purchases of electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of the first registration tax exemption. Excluding exempted consumer electronics (which increased 30% year-on-year) and one-off motor vehicles and parts sales (which surged 81% year-on-year), retail sales in March would still have grown 8% year-on-year, slightly moderating from the 9% growth in the first two months of 2026. UBS believes that Hong Kong's stronger-than-expected March retail sales performance provides a positive reference for retail-focused property developers concentrating on non-essential consumer goods, such as Wharf REIC and Hysan. Nevertheless, persistently high oil prices remain a key downside risk, as a potential decline in mainland tourist arrivals could signal weak per-capita spending. Conversely, a reduction in outbound travel by Hong Kong residents may benefit community mall operators, as local consumption typically gains. In this context, the bank views Link REIT as a relative beneficiary.
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