On January 13, amid the volatile global financial markets of early 2026, the price of gold surged like a runaway steed, breaking through the historic $4,600 per ounce mark to set a staggering new record. This sharp price surge has not only ignited investor risk-aversion sentiment but also revealed the deeper market logic intertwined with geopolitical uncertainty and Federal Reserve policy turbulence. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is currently in an unprecedentedly strong cycle, and the driving forces behind it warrant in-depth analysis. From the sudden event of the Powell criminal investigation to a weak US dollar and inflation expectations, and further to the ongoing escalation of global geopolitical tensions, these factors collectively forge gold's golden era. Although short-term market fluctuations may intensify, the bull market structure for gold is difficult to reverse in the near term. Looking ahead, as Federal Reserve decisions remain data-dependent and global risks evolve, gold still has room for further upside, and investors should closely monitor this week's economic data and court rulings.
From the current chart perspective, the recent surge followed by a pullback suggests a potential top formation; today's cyclical changes require close attention! After gold staged a breakout above 4550, it rose for a consecutive trading session, pushing prices to 4630. This means gold has broken upward by 80 dollars, a move of any magnitude is reasonable and reflects the market's normal risk-off valuation. As emphasized previously, the principle is not to guess the top after a gold rally. Therefore, within this principle, if a corrective move materializes, a corresponding strategy is needed. Monday's sharp rise wasn't strongly evident on the daily technical chart, but the H4 cycle is beginning to show top formation signs, potentially indicating a significant correction. The current consecutive bearish candles confirm a downtrend; today could see a further decline towards 4550 and 4500. If this plays out, a bearish daily close followed by a Tuesday adjustment would suggest gold entering a period of high-level consolidation for the week. Consequently, the potential large move from 4630 down to 4500 also requires monitoring. Yang Chengfa suggests that starting today, one can tentatively consider short positions to capture the potential downside, targeting at least 4520/4500. Additionally, the US CPI data release today is a crucial indicator of the US economic condition and a key signal for a potential Fed rate cut in January, demanding significant focus.
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