"Seven trading days, and I've gained a 31.60% return!" exclaimed Junjun (a pseudonym), an investor from Beijing, who was both delighted and astonished by the performance of the Commercial Aerospace ETFs she recently purchased.
On the 12th, multiple Commercial Aerospace ETFs surged by their daily limit. Over the past several trading sessions, these ETFs have delivered impressive performances, with many experiencing rapid growth in fund size. Notably, an ETF under Yongying Fund has seen its scale exceed 10 billion yuan.
"7-Day Gains Enough to Cover a Month's Rent" Since the end of 2025, the satellite industry chain has demonstrated robust strength. After the market opened on December 31, 2025, Junjun invested in the Yongying China Securities Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF and the Bosera China Securities Satellite Industry Index Fund C. In the following trading days, both products performed exceptionally well, with their net asset values climbing significantly.
On January 12, 2026, the Yongying China Securities Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF hit the limit-up early in the trading session. By the market close that day, Junjun's cumulative return reached approximately 31.60%. The return for the Bosera China Securities Satellite Industry Index Fund C on the 12th was still pending disclosure, but she estimated her cumulative return since purchase was also over 20%.
"It's a pity I didn't invest more. The total net profit from these two products is only a few thousand yuan, but it's enough to cover one month's rent," Junjun remarked, adding that she plans to continue holding the investments and redeem them at an appropriate time.
On January 12, several other Commercial Aerospace ETFs, including the Huatai-PineBridge China Securities General Aviation Theme ETF, the Fullgoal China Securities General Aviation Industry ETF, and the GF China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, also surged to their daily limits. Products like the Huabao China Securities General Aviation Industry ETF and the ChinaAMC China Securities General Aviation Industry ETF saw gains exceeding 8%.
In terms of cumulative returns, by January 12th, after just six trading days in 2026, ETFs such as the E Fund China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, GF China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, Fullgoal China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, China Merchants China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, and Yongying China Securities Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF had all achieved returns exceeding 30%, with approximate gains of 34.70%, 34.67%, 34.39%, 34.35%, and 30.16% respectively. Multiple other products, including the Huatai-PineBridge China Securities General Aviation Theme ETF and the Ping An China Securities General Aviation Theme ETF, recorded cumulative returns over 20%.
The fervor surrounding Commercial Aerospace ETFs has attracted substantial capital inflows, leading to rapid expansion in the scale of many products. The share count of the China Merchants China Securities Satellite Industry ETF surged from approximately 887 million shares on December 31, 2025, to around 1.597 billion shares by January 9, 2026, effectively doubling in size over five trading days (excluding Dec 31), reaching 3.42 billion yuan. Similarly, the Fullgoal China Securities Satellite Industry ETF saw its shares jump from about 565 million to roughly 1.913 billion over the same period, with its scale growing from 810 million yuan to 3.367 billion yuan.
In absolute terms, the Yongying China Securities Commercial Satellite Communication Industry ETF experienced significant scale growth. Its fund shares increased from approximately 3.969 billion on December 31, 2025, to about 5.904 billion by January 9, 2026. Consequently, its total scale ballooned from around 6.66 billion yuan to approximately 11.769 billion yuan, marking an increase of 5.109 billion yuan within just five trading days of the new year.
"Not an Extension of Traditional Military Aerospace" Given the intense heat in the commercial aerospace sector, how should this segment be understood? What distinguishes it from traditional military aerospace?
Addressing this, Li Shuai, Fund Manager of the ZhongOu Semiconductor Industry Fund, explained that commercial aerospace is a market-driven, profit-oriented industry. It utilizes market mechanisms to allocate resources like technology, capital, and talent for activities across the entire industrial chain, including spacecraft manufacturing, launch services, in-orbit operations, and space applications. Its core lies in achieving the scaled application of aerospace technology and a commercial closed-loop through market mechanisms.
Li Shuai stated that compared to traditional military aerospace, commercial aerospace places greater emphasis on cost control, speed of technological iteration, and responsiveness to market demand. Commercial aerospace is not merely an extension of traditional military aerospace but represents a completely different track—military aerospace is a "task-oriented industry producing to plan," whereas commercial aerospace is a "profit-oriented industry driven by market demand." Genuine commercial aerospace companies have established a complete "manufacturing-launch-operation-service" closed loop, rather than relying solely on individual military contracts.
Analyzing the sector, Lyu Xin, Fund Manager of the GF China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, pointed to three main factors underpinning the current investment value of the satellite segment. First, strong policy support: In November 2025, the China National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Aerospace (2025-2027)," establishing a dedicated Commercial Aerospace Department and explicitly integrating commercial aerospace into the core layout of "new infrastructure" and the "Space-Ground Integrated" network. Second, expanding application scenarios: Beyond traditional communications and navigation, satellite internet application scenarios are continuously broadening. Commercialization is accelerating in areas like direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, high-precision positioning for autonomous driving, and emergency communications, driving growth in terminal equipment demand. New scenarios such as low-altitude economy, space-based computing, and direct smartphone connectivity are expected to further unlock growth potential.
Lyu Xin cited a third factor: technological advancements reducing costs and improving efficiency. China has maintained a high number of satellite launches in recent years, and key progress has been made in high-capacity reusable rocket technology (e.g., tests of the Zhuque-3), further alleviating the launch capacity bottleneck that constrained industry development. On the satellite manufacturing side, the cost per satellite has dropped from hundreds of millions of yuan to the tens of millions level, propelling the industry's transition from "high investment" to "scale production."
Recent news also provided a boost. According to the Science and Technology Daily, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) website showed that between December 25 and 31, 2025, China formally submitted applications to the ITU for frequency and orbital resources for an additional 203,000 satellites.
Xu Rongman, Fund Manager of the China Merchants China Securities Satellite Industry ETF, suggested that China's domestic satellite industry is poised to enter a period of accelerated launch and constellation deployment. Subsequent catalysts remain plentiful, including intensive launches of reusable rockets, progress towards IPOs for domestic and international commercial rocket companies, and advancements in terminal applications.
Li Shuai judged that the commercial aerospace industry is currently in the early stages of "large-scale infrastructure construction" and is accelerating its evolution towards "large-scale commercial application." From a technological standpoint, between late 2025 and early 2026, China has multiple reusable launch vehicles scheduled for their maiden flights. It is anticipated that within the next 3 to 5 years, China may gradually master rocket recovery and reuse technology. Driven by breakthroughs in a series of critical technologies, China's low-earth orbit satellite constellations could enter a phase of routine service before 2030, with various terminal application scenarios successively opening up, potentially leading to an industry explosion.
"Focus on Guarding Against Four Types of Investment Risks" Li Shuai emphasized that when screening relevant listed companies, the core selection framework should focus on the trinity of "technological barriers + competitive advantages + order fulfillment." Priority should be given to assessing whether a company possesses core technologies (e.g., engines, satellite payloads), strong industrial competitiveness, and stable orders secured through partnerships with national teams or major constellation plans. Key metrics to observe include the ratio of R&D expenses (reflecting investment intensity), progress on R&D/supply chain projects, the value of orders on hand (visibility), and product gross margin levels (indicating pricing power). The aim is to avoid investing in targets driven by "pure speculation" or those that are "technologically lagging," and instead select companies genuinely capable of capitalizing on national policy benefits and achieving sustained growth in the market.
Referencing the performance of the China Securities Satellite Industry Index and the China Securities Commercial Satellite Communication Industry Index, as of January 12, both indices had recorded cumulative gains of approximately 74.03% and 63.94% over the past month. Recently, several listed companies have issued announcements regarding unusual stock price movements or risk warnings, advising investors to invest rationally and be mindful of risks.
Xu Rongman noted that the industry is at the tail end of its introduction phase and the beginning of its growth phase, with the market currently placing greater emphasis on long-term potential. Satellite launch volumes in 2026 are expected to double, and high growth coupled with earnings realization is expected to gradually digest current valuations. Static valuation metrics are less applicable now; instead, dynamic tracking of order fulfillment and earnings performance is necessary, with a focus on the growth potential of leading companies.
Xu Rongman also cautioned that given the recent substantial absolute and relative gains in the satellite industry sector, amplified by positive factors, investors need to be wary of short-term correction risks. He suggested closely monitoring sector developments and cautiously considering entry points amidst volatility.
Li Shuai highlighted four key types of risks that require particular attention in specific investments: First, valuation overextension risk. Second, technology validation risk, primarily referring to uncertainties arising from unconverged or unproven technological pathways. Third, order delivery risk, as delivery cycles in the aerospace industry often span years, creating potential mismatches between optimistic expectations and actual financial performance. Fourth, the risk of short-term speculative hype. Investors should pay more attention to a company's actual business and technological capabilities, avoid blindly chasing trends, be vigilant against "pseudo-commercial aerospace" ventures, and focus on long-term value rather than short-term speculation.
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