Glyphosate prices have been steadily rising since March 2025, with the upward trend accelerating since May. By the end of August, prices had increased approximately 24% from the year's low point to 27,300 yuan per ton. In the short term, glyphosate prices may rise to 30,000 yuan per ton in Q4 2025, primarily considering: On the demand side, North America's peak demand season will begin in October, and since multinational agrochemical companies' inventories have been largely normalized, Q4 2025 glyphosate demand is expected to remain at relatively high levels. On the supply side, considering construction progress, the probability of Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.'s 50,000 tons/year glyphosate capacity investment in Guizhou becoming operational within 2025 is relatively low, with limited new supply additions in Q4 2025, suggesting short-term supply-demand dynamics may maintain a relatively tight balance.
**"Anti-Involution" Catalyst Combined with Improved Supply-Demand Pattern, Glyphosate Prices Continue Rebounding Since March**
Glyphosate prices have been steadily rising since March 2025, with the upward trend accelerating since May. By the end of August, prices had increased approximately 24% from the year's low point to 27,300 yuan per ton. The price increases in March-April were primarily due to the glyphosate industry's anti-involution meeting held on March 13, combined with the 2025 CAC agrochemical exhibition opening on March 17. Glyphosate producers gradually implemented coordinated production restrictions, leading to a price rebound from low levels. Since May, glyphosate prices have accelerated upward, with the core reason being significant improvements on the demand side, particularly the release of glyphosate demand from Brazil, Argentina, and other South American countries, continuously improving industry supply-demand dynamics. According to customs import-export data, China's exports of other non-halogenated organophosphorus derivatives (primarily glyphosate/glufosinate) reached 391,000 tons in the first seven months of 2025, up 12% year-over-year, already exceeding the same period in 2022. Additionally, some domestic producers have successively shut down for maintenance due to environmental protection and high temperature reasons, slightly reducing industry operating rates. Overall glyphosate supply-demand has tightened, with inventory depletion accelerating.
**Industry Profitability Has Significantly Recovered**
Benefiting from favorable prices, glyphosate companies' profitability has shown significant improvement recently. As of August 29, China's glyphosate price reached 27,300 yuan per ton, with calculated glycine process price spreads recovering to approximately 13,600 yuan per ton, significantly higher than the approximately 9,000 yuan per ton spread in March. Considering depreciation, labor, and other production costs, current glyphosate producers' gross margins are estimated to reach approximately 3,000 yuan per ton, showing significant industry profitability recovery.
**North American Peak Season Approaching, Q4 Glyphosate Prices Still Have Upward Space**
In the short term, glyphosate prices may rise to 30,000 yuan per ton in Q4 2025, primarily considering: On the demand side, North America's peak demand season will begin in October, and since multinational agrochemical companies' inventories have been largely normalized, Q4 2025 glyphosate demand is expected to remain at relatively high levels. On the supply side, considering construction progress, the probability of Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.'s 50,000 tons/year glyphosate capacity investment in Guizhou becoming operational within 2025 is relatively low, with limited new supply additions in Q4 2025, suggesting short-term supply-demand dynamics may maintain a relatively tight balance.
Recommended stocks that benefit from glyphosate price elasticity include Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.,Ltd. (600141.SH), Nantong Jiangshan Agrochemical&Chemicals Co.,Ltd. (600389.SH), Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. (600596.SH), Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.,Ltd. (600486.SH), and Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.,Ltd. (603599.SH).
**Risk Factors**
Significant decline in agricultural product prices and geopolitical risks.
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