A veteran commodities strategist who spent years at Goldman Sachs is sounding the alarm on a potentially explosive phase for American energy costs, warning that the window for a record-breaking surge at the pump is rapidly closing. Jeff Currie, founder and CEO of macro research firm Real Macro, now sees a "very high" probability that the national average gasoline price climbs above $5 per gallon before the November midterm elections, with diesel potentially spiking to between $7 and $9 per gallon.
Currie, in a recent interview, described the current energy market as entering a significantly more dangerous period. The supply tightness that was previously concentrated in refined products like gasoline and diesel is now beginning to migrate upstream, placing mounting pressure on the crude oil market itself. Combined with the effects of supply scarcity and currency devaluation, American consumers may be bracing for a fresh round of energy price shocks.
"Crude is the real signal, and refined products are more of the noise," Currie stated, emphasizing that the oil market is now releasing distress signals indicating a further deterioration in supply conditions. This dynamic, he argues, will ultimately transmit through to terminal fuel prices such as gasoline and diesel, creating a cascading effect on household costs.
Breaking the $5 per gallon threshold for gasoline carries profound psychological and political weight, particularly with the November 3 midterm elections approaching and control of Congress hanging in the balance. The last time the U.S. national average gasoline price exceeded $5 was during the post-pandemic inflation surge of 2022 when the economic landscape was far different. Now, with recent escalations in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the average gasoline price had already climbed above $4.29 per gallon by Thursday, shrinking the distance to that critical $5 mark.
The pressure on the diesel market appears even more acute. For the first time on record, U.S. diesel prices have pierced the $6 per gallon barrier. Currie projects that if the current energy supply constraints persist, diesel prices could realistically escalate further to a range of $7 to $9 per gallon, presenting a formidable challenge for logistics and transportation sectors that rely heavily on the fuel.
When pressed on the likelihood of gasoline hitting $5 before the midterms, Currie delivered a stark assessment: "very high." He pointed out that while U.S. refineries still possess the ability to shift production capacity between diesel and gasoline to adapt to varying supply conditions across different refined product markets, this flexibility is not limitless. As supply pressures continue to accumulate, refineries will eventually exhaust the buffer space created by adjusting their product slates, leaving the market increasingly exposed to shortages.
Meanwhile, the release of crude from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which had previously helped fill supply gaps, is showing no signs of being reactivated. This suggests the market may lose a crucial supply cushion at a time when it is needed most, removing a tool that had offered some relief during previous periods of strain.
Currie's warnings underscore that the energy shock confronting the United States is no longer merely about rising oil prices themselves. As supply tightness spreads from refined products into crude, the potential for continued escalation in both gasoline and diesel prices could place an even heavier burden on consumers. With the national average gasoline price already exceeding $4.29 and diesel surpassing $6, if Currie's forecasts materialize with gasoline reaching $5 and diesel climbing to $7–$9, a fresh wave of fuel price increases could further intensify the cost-of-living pressures facing American families. This would transform the energy market into a significant risk factor that investors must closely monitor in the run-up to the November midterm elections, as the issue evolves into an increasingly sensitive economic and political flashpoint.
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