On June 18th, Wednesday, the analysis suggested that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran pressured oil prices lower, leading to a sharp drop in inflationary pressures. This cooled market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, weighed on the U.S. dollar, and directly boosted the gold price. Consequently, the suggested trading strategy was to watch for support at $4,300, then $4,280, and resistance at $4,369, followed by $4,400.
Subsequent price action saw gold consolidating at high levels after the Asian session opened on Wednesday. The price rebounded to meet resistance at $4,349 before retreating and finding support at $4,317. This pattern continued until the U.S. session opened, when gold oscillated higher,刷新 a one-week high to $4,382. However, during the U.S. session, the gold price suddenly plunged, dropping nearly $100 in a short, sharp move. The price continued to decline afterwards,刷新 the daily low to $4,218 and erasing all gains for the week. A slight recovery occurred before the close, with current trading around $4,267. Overall, the sudden plunge from the daily high was primarily driven by a rapid reversal in market sentiment influenced by news developments.
Analysis indicates that last week's sudden announcement by former President Trump to cancel military strikes against Iran, followed by the U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, pressured oil prices to刷新 three-month lows. The sharp drop in inflationary pressure cooled market expectations for Fed rate hikes, supporting gold's rebound from six-month lows to刷新 a one-week high. Wednesday's sudden plunge from the weekly high, erasing the week's gains, was mainly due to the Federal Reserve's policy decision released that day. While holding rates steady, the Fed delivered a clear hawkish signal. The policy statement completely removed previous hints of rate cuts, marking a shift from a neutral-dovish to a neutral-hawkish stance. The dot plot and economic projections showed a strong hawkish turn, indicating the possibility of one rate hike this year. The core PCE forecast was大幅上调 from 2.7% to 3.3%, providing support for Fed policy tightening. This caused a significant升温 in market expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, directly pressuring the gold price.
On the daily chart, the sudden plunge from the weekly high has ended the short-term uptrend, with the overall price still not free from downside risks. Support for gold can be watched near Wednesday's low around $4,220, followed by the $4,200整数关口. A break below would increase short-term downside risk, with further support anticipated near the weekly Bollinger Band lower轨 around the $4,100整数关口. Resistance for gold can be monitored at the $4,270 level, where the price briefly stabilized and rebounded after the sharp drop and where it met resistance again after recovering from the close. Further resistance is seen near the rebound high around $4,330 after the initial stabilization from the plunge, and at the daily Bollinger Band middle轨 around $4,380. The bullish crossover of the 5-day moving average is slowing, the MACD indicator is接近 forming a bullish crossover, while the KDJ and RSI indicators maintain their bullish crossovers. Short-term technicals suggest gold still has a chance for a rebound, though the upward momentum has明显 weakened.
Intraday Gold Outlook: The Federal Reserve held rates steady but delivered clear hawkish signals, significantly boosting market expectations for a rate hike and directly pressuring gold prices. The suggested trading approach is to treat the market with a震荡 mentality. Support below can be watched at $4,220 and $4,200; a break lower would increase short-term downside risk, with $4,100 to watch. Resistance above can be monitored for a break above $4,270; holding above this level could see a move towards $4,330, with further recovery potential towards $4,380.
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