The A-share market experienced a volatile session on June 25th, initially surging before pulling back and then rallying again. A significant divergence was observed between the performance of large-cap and small-cap stocks, with heavyweight constituents showing relative strength. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index had gained 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.82%, and the ChiNext Index surged 2.84% to a record high. Additionally, the STAR 50 Index climbed 3.87%, also setting a new historical peak. Trading volume expanded notably, with the combined turnover for the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges reaching 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 310 billion from the previous session. However, the broader market was weak, with over 4,200 individual stocks declining.
Market Overview
The session was marked by a persistent split between large and small caps, with capital heavily concentrated in the technology sector, while most thematic concepts trended lower. The CPO concept oscillated higher, with New Easun surging to a record high and Wasion hitting the daily limit-up. The memory chip segment saw a strong breakout, with Ingenic Semiconductor and Dermitek both rising by the 20% limit to new all-time highs. The large financial sector remained active, with Changjiang Securities securing its third limit-up in four trading days.
On the downside, lithium battery concepts declined across the board. AI application concepts also retreated uniformly. The humanoid robot concept continued its downward trajectory. Pro-cyclical sectors such as chemicals, coal, power, non-ferrous metals, and steel remained under pressure. Pharmaceutical concepts, including innovative and generic drugs, experienced a pullback.
Notable Stock Movements
Focus stock Lianxun Instruments, which set a new record high yesterday, continued its ascent this morning, briefly touching an intraday high of 2777.77 yuan, refreshing its historical peak—a price point that sparked considerable market discussion. Notably, Cambricon had previously surged to an intraday high of 777.77 yuan on January 10, 2025, also setting a record at the time and generating similar market buzz.
Analyst Perspectives
Chief Economist Zhang Jun and Chief Strategist Yang Chao of Galaxy Securities commented that historical reviews of the A-share market show that when the concentration of trading volume surpasses 45%, a style rotation is highly probable. The current market crowding has reached a critical historical juncture, with the TMT sector's share of turnover hitting a阶段性 peak. However, this cycle differs, as high trading concentration does not necessarily signal an immediate peak and decline. In this instance, the year-on-year cumulative net profit growth rate for heavily traded stocks is rising and significantly outperforming the broader A-share market, with the earnings growth gap widening. This indicates that the current rise in trading concentration is not solely driven by sentiment but reflects capital consistently flowing towards targets with higher industry景气度 and stronger earnings realization capabilities. The investment environment for A-shares is expected to improve in the second half of the year, supported by declining crude oil prices, potentially allowing the market to return to a multi-theme driven uptrend.
Looking ahead, Orient Securities maintains that the technology sector remains the undeniable investment choice in the recent market. However, they caution that the market is about to enter the mid-year report verification周期, and investors should be wary of potential earnings shocks for many科技品种 that have been subject to speculation. From a technical perspective, they anticipate short-term indices still possess the momentum to test the 4150-point area.
Sector Highlights
CPO Concept Gains Amid Volatility
The CPO concept saw volatile gains, with New Easun surging to a record high and Wasion hitting the limit-up. Commentary: On the news front, on June 24th, Gilad Shainer, Senior Vice President of Networking at NVIDIA, publicly refuted market concerns about "CPO mass production delays" raised by a SemiAnalysis report. He明确表态 that there are no delays in the H2 CPO product delivery schedule, confirming that the Spectrum-X以太网 CPO switch will strictly follow the plan to commence mass production and customer ramp-up delivery in the second half of 2026.
Memory Chip Sector Surges
The memory chip concept爆发, with Ingenic Semiconductor rising by the 20% limit and Dermitek hitting the limit-up, both reaching record highs. Commentary: On the news front, Micron Technology's shares surged up to 16% after-hours on June 24th. The company projected Q4 adjusted revenue between $49 billion and $51 billion, significantly above market expectations of $43.24 billion. Micron's CEO stated that, driven by AI demand across the entire industry chain叠加 structural constraints on the supply side, the tight supply-demand situation is expected to persist beyond the 2027 calendar year.
Large Financial Sector Shows Repeated Activity
The large financial sector exhibited反复活跃, with Changjiang Securities securing its third limit-up in four days. Commentary: Guosen Securities noted that against the backdrop of increasing homogenization in traditional brokerage and通道 business, the industry's growth logic is undergoing a profound shift towards dual drivers of "cross-border + institutional" business.
Additional Institutional Views
Orient Securities: Market Nearing Mid-Year Report验证周期; Indices Retain Momentum to Test 4150-Point Zone
Orient Securities believes the technology sector remains the primary investment choice recently. However, they提醒 that the market is即将进入 the mid-year report verification cycle, and caution is needed regarding potential earnings冲击波 for many科技品种 that have been subject to炒作. Technically, since bottoming out on the 8th of this month, the Shanghai Composite Index has been operating within a relatively standard上升通道. Monday's大涨高点 exceeded the upper轨线, leading to a pullback on Tuesday. Wednesday's low of 4070点基本 reached the lower轨线 before rebounding,但 was明显 suppressed by the five-day moving average. This level is roughly at the midpoint of the上升通道. They预计短期股指仍有冲击4150点区域的动能.
Caitong Securities: Structural Divergence in Market Continues; Low Probability of Immediate Short-Term Trend性 Decline for Major Indices
Caitong Securities认为: The market's structural分化行情延续, with a全面回暖 in the hard tech line driving index strength, while lithium矿 and化工 sectors were active. Overall, the大盘及时迎来修复, and the probability of a short-term趋势性下探 is不大. However, structurally, the科创方向 shows a better overall trend, particularly更容易逆势带动市场情绪 in弱市行情, whereas the周期方向 exhibits greater volatility overall, with部分周期股上涨逻辑 also tied to the AI industry chain. Therefore, in轮动 scenarios, the科创方向 warrants closer attention. Operationally, given lingering uncertainty in overseas markets and the need for the A-share market to digest筹码 at current levels,指数层面 may experience反复震荡. It is建议 to take profits on rallies and把握 style层面的轮动. Although the market is in a style rebalancing phase,中期来看, A-share pricing logic will ultimately revert to fundamentals and earnings drivers.
Tianfu Securities: Market Faces Earnings Verification Window and Liquidity Contraction Expectations; Pricing Weight to Shift from Narratives to Earnings Realization
Tianfu Securities认为: The margin financing and securities lending balance has reached a historical high above 3 trillion yuan. Similar to trading volume thresholds,每当两融余额达到历史高位时, subsequent market movements often experience corresponding扰动. Although the absolute number is at a historical level, examining its structure reveals two相对数据 worth noting. First, the overall两融余额占市场成交额比例 is below historical peaks. Second, within the两融余额, electronics, communications, and non-ferrous metals rank in the top three. This indicates that the market's极致结构化 is also fueled by this portion of激进资金,侧面证明市场活跃度较高. However,一旦相应抱团松动, this capital could also伏笔情绪下杀. Strategically, continue monitoring external market influences and changes in trading volume, paying attention to the impact of Micron Technology's earnings report data on global科技成长 sentiment. As June concludes, the market faces an earnings verification window and expectations of liquidity contraction. Market pricing权重 will shift from narratives towards业绩兑现. Focus on assets with strong抗风险能力, particularly细分领域 with high certainty in mid-year report业绩.
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