High silver prices are set to accelerate the industrial application of base metal substitution technologies.
Current mainstream approaches primarily include silver-coated copper, electroplated copper, copper paste, and aluminum paste. These solutions are steadily moving towards industrial application, with the core objective of effectively reducing the mass production cost of crystalline silicon solar cells and supporting long-term industry cost reduction.
Overall, the pace of industrial adoption for silver-reduction and silver-free technologies is expected to continue accelerating, driving a faster decline in silver paste consumption per watt for photovoltaics over the medium to long term.
Rising Silver Prices Elevate Production Costs, Base Metal Substitution Emerges as Key Cost-Cutting Breakthrough
Since 2024, international silver prices have maintained an upward trend, directly leading to higher costs for photovoltaic silver paste. Based on a projected silver price of 20,000 yuan/kg by 2026, the cost of silver paste per watt is estimated at approximately 0.163 yuan/W, accounting for nearly 20% of module costs. Sustained high silver prices will expedite the industrial implementation of base metal replacement technologies.
The fundamental logic behind base metal substitution is the partial or complete replacement of silver material with lower-cost metals like copper and aluminum.
Major Industry Players Progressing with Diverse Base Metal Paths
Current mainstream technology routes mainly include the four solutions of silver-coated copper, electroplated copper, copper paste, and aluminum paste. Each technology has its own advantages and disadvantages in terms of process complexity, compatibility with cell technologies, and application scenarios, but overall, they have moved beyond the early R&D phase.
Leading companies such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.,Ltd., Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd., Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.,Ltd., and Jolywood(Suzhou)Sunwatt Co.,Ltd. each have their own focus in base metal pathways. Industrial applications are steadily progressing, with the core aim of effectively lowering mass production costs for silicon-based solar cells and providing support for sustained industry-wide cost reduction.
High Silver Prices Drive Faster Substitution, Copper Paste and Other Solutions Approach Mass Production Milestones
Specifically: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. is developing its Nanoscale Alloy Contact Matrix (ACM) technology platform, with a 20GW capacity expected to be completed by June 2026. Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd. anticipates completing base metal process upgrades for nearly 30GW of capacity by the end of Q2 2026. Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.,Ltd. has already achieved 10GW of electroplated copper mass production in Zhuhai. Csi Solar Co.,Ltd. plans to reduce silver consumption by 30% by mid-year, aiming for a 40% reduction by year-end. Jolywood(Suzhou)Sunwatt Co.,Ltd. is advancing Namic 1.0 technology upgrades at its Shanxi TOPCon production lines, targeting an initial upgrade of 8GW capacity.
Overall, the pace of industrial adoption for silver-reduction and silver-free technologies is expected to continue accelerating, driving a faster decline in silver paste consumption per watt for photovoltaics over the medium to long term.
Investment Recommendations
High silver prices are accelerating the photovoltaic base metal substitution process. It is recommended to monitor Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock Co.,Ltd. and Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock Co.,Ltd.. The deepening application of low- and zero-silver technologies at the cell level suggests attention on Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.,Ltd., Longi Green Energy Technology Co.,Ltd., Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd., Csi Solar Co.,Ltd., and Jolywood(Suzhou)Sunwatt Co.,Ltd..
Risk Warnings
Macroeconomic volatility; changes in industry policies; weaker-than-expected downstream demand; shifts in overseas trade policies; slower-than-expected technological progress. Jinko Solar Co.,Ltd. is a market-making client of the firm.
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