Industrial Securities has reiterated its "Buy" rating on Sands China Ltd (01928), forecasting revenues of $7.4 billion, $7.9 billion, and $8.3 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, representing year-on-year growth of 4.4%, 6.8%, and 4.9%, respectively. The projected EBITDA stands at $2.31 billion, $2.54 billion, and $2.68 billion, with YoY changes of -0.6%, +9.8%, and +5.5%.
The report highlights that Sands China's Q3 2025 performance showed continued sequential improvement, with both revenue and EBITDA growth rates accelerating compared to the previous two quarters. Temporary disruptions from typhoons in southern China affected visitor arrivals to Macau during the period, but excluding this impact, EBITDA performance would have been stronger.
The Londoner property maintained its growth trajectory, with the company actively adjusting strategies to capture additional market share. Industrial Securities remains optimistic about Sands China's scale advantages and mass-market operational capabilities, expecting The Londoner to gradually unlock its potential. The firm also sees room for further improvement in the company's future dividend yield.
In Q3 2025, Sands China reported total net revenue of $1.90 billion, up 7.5% YoY and 6.1% QoQ. Adjusted EBITDA reached $601 million, rising 2.7% YoY and 6.2% QoQ. Revenue breakdown by segment: casino operations (76.3%), rooms (11.7%), food and beverage (3.7%), shopping malls (6.9%), and other retail (1.3%). By property, The Venetian Macao (36.9%), The Londoner (36.6%), The Parisian (11.6%), The Plaza Macao (11.0%), and Sands Macao (3.8%) contributed to the revenue mix.
The Londoner, still in its ramp-up phase, delivered strong results with revenue growth of 6.9% QoQ and 49.1% YoY, while EBITDA increased 6.8% QoQ and 76.6% YoY. Industrial Securities believes The Londoner's EBITDA margin still has room for expansion compared to other properties.
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