On Thursday, Chicago Board of Trade soybeans advanced as weekly export sales landed at the upper end of market forecasts, offsetting fading harvest pressure. Soybean meal declined while soybean oil gained. The U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales report showed net soybean sales jumped 2.841 million tonnes for the week, surging 394% from the prior week and 315% above the four-week average, sitting at the high end of the anticipated 1.8 to 3 million tonne range. On Thursday, the USDA confirmed private sales of 202,000 tonnes of soybeans to China. The soybean harvest is winding down, with the market expecting a record crop this year. The Brazilian vegetable oil association stated that domestic processing demand growth will likely push Brazil's soybean exports down 0.8% to 113 million tonnes in 2027.
Domestically, protein meals traded in a narrow range. The spot market remains amply supplied, with soybean meal inventories at elevated levels. Weak live hog prices have fueled concerns over forward demand. However, as recent market pricing has digested these factors, the bearish impact from demand and cost headwinds on the futures board has gradually diminished. Going forward, the market will continue to monitor soybean cost dynamics and soybean meal demand expectations, as well as capital flows.
On Thursday, BMD palm oil climbed, tracking gains in related markets. Diesel prices rose to their highest since May after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia sparked supply disruption fears. Canadian rapeseed and U.S. soybean oil advanced on firm diesel prices and a rebound in oilseed prices. The latest report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada showed Canadian rapeseed stocks for 2026/27 at 1.968 million tonnes, a slight downward revision of 11,000 tonnes from the September estimate, but still marginally above the 1.889 million tonnes for 2025/26.
Domestically, edible oils traded with a firm bias. External oil markets presented mixed signals, offering no clear directional trend. On the spot side, inventory pressure remains considerable, with soybean oil and palm oil stocks at high levels. Traders held firm on prices, pushing basis slightly higher. Looking ahead, the market will continue to watch geopolitical conflicts, import cost changes, and end-user consumption.
On Thursday, hog futures extended their decline, with the November contract hitting a new low as bearish sentiment persisted. Data showed that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported national breeding sow inventory fell to 36.02 million head by the end of the third quarter of 2026, with the year-on-year decline widening to 10.7%, marking the first substantial breach below the 37.5 million head normal retention red line. The pace of capacity reduction continues to steepen, yet hog prices remain range-bound at low levels. This divergence of accelerating capacity clearing alongside persistently weak prices has drawn sustained market attention. On October 22, mainstream hog transaction prices in Heilongjiang were 9.42 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from October 21. The hog market continues to exhibit a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality.
Overall, since the National Day holiday, hog supply has continued to build, spot prices have declined seasonally, and hog prices face downward pressure and adjustment. The strong-expectations, weak-reality dynamic remains intact, capping upside for hog prices.
On Thursday, the main egg futures contract for December 2612 opened lower, rebounded in the afternoon, and closed as a long lower-shadow doji. By the close, it was down 0.31% for the day at 3,247 yuan per 500 kg. On the spot side, data showed that as of October 22, national egg prices were 3.78 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from October 21. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 3.6 yuan/jin and Heishan brown-shell eggs were 3.7 yuan/jin. In sales regions, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 3.85 yuan/jin and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.2 yuan/jin. Demand has improved somewhat from earlier periods, with most sales region egg prices stable and a few rising. However, weakness in related commodity prices continued to weigh on sentiment, keeping eggs range-bound with a softer bias.
On Thursday, the main corn contract for January 2701 rose on increased open interest, recovering earlier losses. Currently, grassroots prices in Northeast production areas have stopped falling, deep-processing quotes have held steady, and reluctance to sell has spread from farmers to traders. The Liaoning port decline has not reversed, with Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port flat prices continuing to probe lower. The port-to-production area price inversion has deepened, shipping demand has weakened, and southbound logistics remain sluggish. Market divergence is growing, with production area price support coexisting alongside port-side price pressure. In the near term, the port side continues to dominate the weaker trend.
North China corn prices have diverged. Shandong deep-processing enterprises saw early-morning truck arrivals continue to shrink to low levels. Enterprises in Binzhou and other areas were the first to raise listed prices to attract supply, with signs of grain competition emerging. Weifang quotes remained stable. Shijiazhuang deep-processing in Hebei continuously cut purchase prices, becoming a new catch-down point in North China, with aggregate prices barely flat. Henan urban prices moved sideways with thin buying and selling. Farmer reluctance to sell has intensified, and insufficient grassroots supply is supporting localized rebounds. Southern sales regions have shifted from decline to bottoming out. The downtrend is fading, forming a short-term floor, and traders' willingness to sell at low prices has diminished. Overall, the number of price-cutting enterprises in sales regions has decreased, but feed mills, despite low inventories, are in no hurry to stock up, maintaining a strong wait-and-see stance. A rebound still requires demand-side support.
Broadly speaking, North China corn harvesting is essentially complete, while Northeast corn is gradually being harvested and brought to market. After the concentrated supply pressure in North China has been absorbed, the阶段性 supply pressure has eased somewhat, with corn futures and spot quotes oscillating in a low range, awaiting new directional guidance. Technically, since October 14, the January corn contract encountered resistance after rebounding and came under pressure again, showing range-bound weakness. On October 22, the main corn contract rose on increased open interest, recovering earlier losses, with long-short divergence widening. Large grain enterprises increased short hedges on far-month contracts. In the near term, the January contract should be watched for performance in the 2,220-2,230 price range. Disclaimer: The information in this report is sourced from publicly available materials. Our company makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of such information and does not guarantee that the information and suggestions contained herein will not change. We have strived for objectivity and fairness in the report content, but the views, conclusions, and suggestions herein are for reference only and do not constitute recommendations for any specific product or business, nor operational basis or advice for related varieties. Investors making investment decisions based on this report do so at their own risk, and neither our company nor the authors bear any responsibility.
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