Hot topics include self-selected stocks, data centers, market centers, capital flows, and simulated trading clients. The analysis comes from Zhuochuang Information's natural rubber specialist, Wu Weiru. This year, phenological conditions across domestic and overseas production areas have been relatively normal, allowing for smooth tapping starts. However, rainy season disruptions have hampered rubber tapping, with overseas raw material output falling short of expectations. Persistent high purchase prices have created strong cost-driven support. Meanwhile, the inversion between domestic and overseas prices has weighed heavily on imports. According to the latest customs statistics, China's natural rubber imports in August totaled 486,000 tons, down 6.7% year-on-year, marking the lowest level for that month in six years. Domestic inventories have continued to decline, with spot supply liquidity remaining tight. In the latter part of the fourth quarter, the market will closely watch whether El Ni帽o delivers on production cut expectations.
High Raw Material Costs Deplete Import Margins
On the supply side across domestic and overseas production areas this year, overall phenological conditions have been normal, with smooth tapping starts. Since May, major production areas have entered the rainy season, with particularly heavy rainfall affecting Thailand's northern and northeastern regions from late July onward. Continuous downpours have caused temporary flooding in some areas, disrupting tapping operations and slowing output pace. This has kept raw material prices elevated at high levels, providing clear cost-side support. Although new rubber output has increased month-on-month over time, rising domestic consumption, coupled with production cuts and shipping disruptions in supply channels from Indonesia and Africa, has kept Thai natural rubber well-supported by firm restocking demand from international tire manufacturers. Consequently, procurement prices have remained high; as of September 21, Thai cup rubber purchase prices stood at 73.8 baht per kilogram, up 44.56% year-on-year. Dollar-denominated rubber prices have been strongly supported by costs, sustaining the inversion between domestic and overseas prices. Taking STR20# blended rubber as an example, the RMB blended rubber market price is at a discount of 565.93 yuan per ton to the duty-paid dollar price, with the inversion leaving import margins persistently thin.
Declining Cumulative Imports Tighten Domestic Supply Liquidity
According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, total natural rubber imports in August 2026 reached 486,000 tons, down 6.7% year-on-year. Compared with historical levels for the same period, this August's import volume represents a six-year low. Cumulative imports from January to August totaled 4.0758 million tons, down 45,600 tons or 1% year-on-year. Notably, import volumes from Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia have seen the most significant declines. According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, cumulative natural rubber imports from Vietnam in the January-August period fell by 146,100 tons, a 19% drop, making it the country with the most pronounced shrinkage in import flows this year. The core reasons for the import decline are twofold: first, excessive rainfall has led to lower-than-expected new rubber output; second, the sustained inversion between domestic and overseas prices has eliminated import profit incentives, dampening domestic import willingness. As a result, overall domestic social inventories have continued to draw down due to the lack of new rubber import replenishment. Zhuochuang Information data shows that for the week of September 18, total natural rubber inventories in the Qingdao region decreased by 17,400 tons. Bonded zone inventories fell by 9,100 tons, a 9.35% month-on-month decline, while general trade warehouse inventories dropped by 8,300 tons. With limited pressure from new rubber replenishment, social inventories have persisted in their downward trend, leaving spot supply liquidity tight, particularly for Vietnamese rubber.
Zhuochuang Information believes that new rubber output during the overseas peak production season is the core variable determining whether domestic supply liquidity improves. Under normal seasonal patterns, the fourth quarter typically sees upstream transition from the production ramp-up phase to the peak output phase. However, the World Meteorological Organization has issued a warning that the El Ni帽o climate event will reach "super strength," peaking around the end of the year, with the phenomenon persisting until February 2027. Historical data suggests that strong El Ni帽o events have the potential to reduce global natural rubber supply, and new rubber output during the peak season may fall short of expectations. In terms of price drivers, the risk of El Ni帽o has triggered expectations of tighter future supply. Combined with the broader context of a capacity inflection cycle, supply disruption expectations could push up forward premiums, making prices more likely to rise than fall.
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