Everbright Securities has released a research report stating that, against the backdrop of a continuously strengthening energy security strategy, it is optimistic about the long-term value of China's three major state-owned oil and gas companies. The "New Energy System Construction Plan for the 15th Five-Year Period" places a prominent emphasis on energy security, proposing the establishment of a robust and resilient energy security system to safeguard the strategic energy security baseline under extreme circumstances. Furthermore, the plan reinforces supply constraints on the petrochemical and coal chemical industries from multiple dimensions. The industry's supply side is expected to continue contracting, with the profit center likely to gradually rise.
EB SECURITIES' main views are as follows:
New Energy System Plan for 15th Five-Year Period Released, Anchoring Core Development Goals for 2030
On June 25, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially issued the "New Energy System Construction Plan for the 15th Five-Year Period," aiming to initially establish a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system by 2030. The plan proposes 14 specific measures centered on six major systems: building new energy infrastructure, ensuring energy security, promoting green and low-carbon energy consumption, advancing energy technology innovation, modernizing energy governance, and fostering international energy cooperation.
Key targets include: achieving a comprehensive energy production capacity of 5.8 billion tons of standard coal; comprehensively enhancing the complementary, mutual support, safety, and resilience levels of the power system; diversifying and controlling energy imports; peaking coal and oil consumption; raising the share of non-fossil energy consumption to 25%; increasing the proportion of wind and solar power installed capacity to over 50%, making them the mainstay of power capacity; and raising the share of non-fossil energy power generation to 50%, making it the main source of electricity.
Fortifying Energy Security Baseline, Positive on Long-Term Value of Major State Oil Giants
The plan gives prominent priority to energy security, proposing the construction of a strong and resilient energy security system to safeguard the strategic energy security baseline under extreme circumstances. The plan explicitly states: 1) Increasing efforts in oil and gas reserve addition and production enhancement, focusing on four major areas—deep earth, deep sea, unconventional resources, and mature oil and gas fields—to promote "stabilizing oil and increasing gas," aiming to maintain annual crude oil output at around 200 million tons and achieve steady growth in natural gas production. 2) Improving and perfecting the oil and gas reserve system, building several underground gas storage clusters. 3) Perfecting the nationwide oil and gas pipeline network, targeting a primary pipeline transmission capacity of 500 billion cubic meters per year for natural gas pipelines by 2030. 4) Strengthening coal's role as a bottom-line guarantee, focusing on building five major coal supply and security bases, with their output accounting for over 80% of the national total by 2030, forming a production capacity reserve exceeding 100 million tons per year.
As the main force in increasing reserves and production, these major state-owned oil and gas companies' proprietary resources form the foundation for China's energy security. Enhancing domestic supply capacity remains the strategic support and reliable pathway for ensuring energy security. In the context of a continuously strengthening energy security strategy, the long-term value of these companies is viewed positively.
Supply Constraints Elevate Industry Profit Center, Advantages of Leading Integrated Refining and Coal Chemical Companies Highlighted
The plan reinforces supply constraints on the petrochemical and coal chemical industries from multiple dimensions. The industry's supply side is expected to continue contracting, with the profit center likely to gradually rise. In the refining sector, the core principle of "capacity reduction and replacement" is to be strictly implemented, with strict control over refining capacity scale and guidance for optimization and restructuring of refining capacity among large enterprises and key regions.
Regarding coal chemicals, on one hand, it involves reasonably controlling coal power installed capacity and power generation, continuously promoting the orderly shutdown of inefficient and outdated coal power, accelerating the transformation of coal use from "fuel" to "feedstock," thereby creating development space for high-quality coal chemical enterprises. On the other hand, key regions for air pollution prevention and control will continue to implement total coal consumption control, with new, renovated, or expanded coal-consuming projects requiring equivalent or reduced coal substitution. This implies significantly increased difficulty in obtaining approvals for high-energy-consumption coal chemical projects, restricting the disorderly expansion of low-end coal chemicals from the source.
Against the backdrop of tightening industry capacity, stricter approval for new projects, and rising thresholds for low-carbon technological upgrades, leading enterprises with superior energy efficiency and outstanding cost advantages will continue to benefit from industry consolidation, leading to further concentration of market share.
Surge in New Energy Installed Capacity Accelerates Energy Storage Construction, Upstream Lithium Battery Materials to Benefit
The plan proposes large-scale, stable development of wind and photovoltaic new energy power stations, accelerating the construction of a new power system adapted to a high proportion of clean energy, and setting a development target for distribution networks to accommodate 900 million kilowatts of distributed new energy by 2030. The continuous expansion of new energy installed capacity places higher demands on the power system's regulation capabilities. Energy storage, as a key link in balancing supply and demand and promoting new energy consumption, is presented with accelerated development opportunities.
Regarding energy storage construction, the plan specifies the rational layout of pumped storage hydropower stations and vigorous development of new energy storage, targeting approximately 160 million kilowatts of pumped storage capacity and 300 million kilowatts of new energy storage capacity by 2030. The continued surge in new energy installations, combined with clear targets for energy storage capacity, will directly drive rapid growth in demand for upstream lithium battery materials (lithium iron phosphate, electrolytes, separators, etc.).
Risk analysis: Upstream capital expenditure growth falling short of expectations; significant volatility in crude oil and natural gas prices.
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