A key measure of US producer prices unexpectedly fell in July for the first time in more than two years, largely reflecting a drop in energy costs and representing a welcome moderation in inflationary pressures.
The producer price index for final demand decreased 0.5% from a month earlier and rose 9.8% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Thursday. The pullback was entirely due to a decline in the costs of goods, though services prices only edged up.
Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core PPI rose 0.2% from June and 7.6% from a year earlier. Both the overall and core figures were softer than forecast.
The figures suggest some pipeline inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. Commodity prices, including oil, have dropped sharply in recent months, and there are indications that supply-chain conditions are improving.
Consumer-price data out Wednesday also showed a welcome moderation in inflation in July, largely reflecting a pullback in prices at the pump. Even so, inflation remains stubbornly high and will likely keep the Federal Reserve on an aggressive path to curb it.
Goods Prices
Some 80% of the decline in goods prices was due to a 16.7% plunge in gasoline prices, the report showed. Diesel, iron and steel scrap and grains also decreased.
Services prices rose just 0.1% in July, led by an increase in fuel margins and transportation and warehousing. Meanwhile, prices for portfolio management, food and alcohol retailing and long-distance trucking declined.
Thursday’s report adds to separate data from S&P Global and regional Fed banks that showed a pullback in prices paid for inputs like materials in July.
Risks remain, however. While supply chains have started normalizing, the war in Ukraine, labor negotiations at West Coast ports and China’s zero-Covid policy represent potential logistics speed bumps for US producers.
Producer prices excluding food, energy, and trade services -- which strips out the most volatile components of the index -- increased 0.2% and 5.8% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, initial jobless claims rose to 262,000 in the latest week.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose for the second straight week, indicating further softening in the labor market despite still tight conditions as the Federal Reserve tries to slow demand to help tame inflation.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended Aug. 6, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 263,000 applications for the latest week.
That's still below the 270,000-300,000 range that economists say would signal a material slowdown in the labor market.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 8,000 to 1.428 million during the week ending July 30. The so-called continuing claims are a proxy for hiring.
The U.S. economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending growing at its slowest pace in two years and business spending declining. The second straight quarterly decline in gross domestic product largely reflected a more moderate pace of inventory accumulation by businesses as job gains overall have stayed strong.
The economy created an unexpectedly robust 528,000 jobs in July, the unemployment rate fell back to its pre-pandemic low, and wage gains surprised to the upside, the Labor Department announced last Friday in a monthly employment report that makes it harder for the Fed to bring the economy into balance soon.
There were 10.7 million job openings at the end of June, with 1.8 openings for every unemployed worker.
The U.S. central bank last month raised its policy rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point as part of its effort to quash high inflation. The Fed has now hiked that rate by 225 basis points since March.
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