China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that since the second half of 2025, differentiation among restaurant brands has continued. Following the easing of the "food delivery war," profitability divergence among stores has depended on same-store sales and net realization rates. In 2026, beverage brands are expected to place greater emphasis on product innovation and reshaping healthy channel structures, while some full-service restaurants have shown marginal improvements. Refined operations will be the industry's focus in 2026, with attention on adjustments by certain brands and the effectiveness of new business models.
CICC's main views are as follows: Profitability divergence exists among freshly-made beverage stores, while some full-service restaurants show marginal improvement; refined operations are the key industry focus for 2026.
Specifically: 1) Beverage Sector: It is estimated that in Q4 2025, same-store sales growth for GUMING, CHABAIDAO, and other major brands exceeded or approached 20%, achieved double-digit growth, or saw modest single-digit increases. In Q1 2026, GUMING and CHABAIDAO both achieved double-digit year-on-year same-store growth. Since the "food delivery war" subsided, store profitability has diverged based on same-store performance and net realization rates. In 2026, beverage brands are expected to focus more on product innovation and restructuring channel health. For instance, GUMING increased delivery prices to protect realization rates, with coffee contributing additional growth; MIXUE GROUP plans a comprehensive upgrade of product quality and supply chain; CHABAIDAO is optimizing menu and pricing structures across channels and enhancing dine-in scenarios with categories like coffee.
2) Restaurant Sector: GUOQUAN plans multiple measures for 2026 to maintain high-single-digit same-store sales growth. HAIDILAO saw improved table turnover rates year-on-year from January to March 2026, benefiting from the holiday season and differentiated initiatives.
Monitoring the effectiveness of brand adjustments and new model validation: HAIDILAO's seafood restaurant model requires an investment of 10-13 million yuan per store, with a gross margin of 40-50%. Current table turnover is 5-6 times, with varied profitability, indicating room for operational refinement; dozens of new outlets may open this year. GUOQUAN's larger format involves approximately 200,000 yuan in equipment and renovation costs, with adjusted stores achieving about 50% higher sales per store year-on-year. Other brands like JIUMAOJIU and GREEN TEA GROUP are also optimizing cost structures and experimenting with new, lower-investment store models.
Recommended stocks include GUMING, YUM CHINA, HAIDILAO, and GREEN TEA GROUP. Suggestions also include monitoring MIXUE GROUP, GUOQUAN, DPC DASH, and JIUMAOJIU. Risk factors include same-store sales and profit margins falling below expectations, intensified competition, and slower-than-expected development of new models.
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