From a market demand perspective, solar power is the preferred energy source for space activities. Previously, the demand for space-based photovoltaics was primarily for satellite solar wings. While the overall industry scale is currently small, it is expanding rapidly. If the concept of space data centers materializes, referencing the 100GW space computing power layout target proposed by Elon Musk, and calculating based on a 30% photovoltaic system conversion efficiency, it could directly generate over 800GW of space-based photovoltaic installation demand in the long term.
Domestic industry leaders are paying close attention to the space-based photovoltaic market, accelerating both technological research and development and scenario exploration. The outlook is positive for HJT and perovskite technologies becoming preferred solutions adapted to the extreme environment of space, benefiting related battery module producers and equipment manufacturers.
In the long term, space-based photovoltaics may become the industry's second demand growth curve. From a market demand standpoint, solar energy is the primary energy choice for aerospace activities. Historically, space PV demand was mainly for satellite solar arrays. As the power requirements of individual satellites increase, the size of these solar arrays is also trending upwards. The current overall industry scale remains modest but is experiencing rapid expansion.
Looking ahead, if the vision for space data centers becomes reality, and using Musk's proposed 100GW space computing target as a benchmark, calculations based on a 30% PV system conversion efficiency indicate this could directly spur ultra-long-term space-based PV installation demand exceeding 800GW. This scale surpasses the current annual global new installations of ground-based photovoltaics.
In December '25, Jinko Energy's Chairman Li Xiande suggested the company should explore opportunities in the space PV market, leveraging its ground-based PV technology to enter the aerospace energy sector. Trina Solar's Chairman Gao Jifan stated that Trina would accelerate the mass production and commercialization of perovskite, ushering in a new era of space-based photovoltaics for interstellar computing. With leading companies prioritizing this market and accelerating R&D and application exploration, space-based PV is poised to transition from concept validation into a phase of explosive growth.
The gallium arsenide route faces high costs, making P-type HJT a potential mid-term alternative. The primary technical requirements for space-based solar power are high efficiency, lightweight design, and resilience to extreme temperatures and intense radiation. The current mainstream ground-based PV technology, TOPCON, is limited by insufficient radiation resistance and constrained potential for lightweight adaptation, making it difficult to suit space application needs.
The prevailing technology for space photovoltaics is currently gallium arsenide. Its commercial products have achieved photoelectric conversion efficiencies exceeding 30%, and through triple-junction structures and specialized process optimization, they offer excellent tolerance to high/low temperatures and cosmic radiation. However, the scarcity of gallium resources drives up production costs, with current space PV panel costs reaching approximately 1,000 yuan/W, far exceeding the less than 1 yuan/W cost of ground-based PV power plants.
In the medium term, the technical characteristics of P-type HJT cells align well with space scenarios. Their silicon wafers can be processed to be ultra-thin, significantly reducing mass per unit of power, while also possessing excellent low-temperature power generation performance and radiation resistance stability. Their application potential in satellite solar wings is particularly promising, potentially enabling them to gradually replace gallium arsenide.
In the long run, perovskite tandem cells are expected to become an important next-generation choice for space photovoltaics. Perovskite tandem cells offer high efficiency, lightweight flexibility, and radiation resistance potential. Once issues regarding service life, stability, and consistency are resolved, they could be widely applied in space scenarios.
Regarding photoelectric conversion efficiency, the theoretical maximum for perovskite can reach 45%, higher than that of gallium arsenide. Perovskite also boasts lightweight and flexible properties. Compared to gallium arsenide, perovskite is over 90% lighter, and over 92% lighter than crystalline silicon. Its power generation per unit mass can reach 10-30W/g, compared to about 3.8W/g for gallium arsenide and approximately 0.38W/g for crystalline silicon. Using perovskite could reduce a satellite's weight by over 200 kilograms, lowering single-satellite launch costs by millions of dollars.
Furthermore, the flexible nature of perovskite batteries allows them to adapt to diverse solar wing designs, including irregular shapes and curved surfaces, perfectly meeting the special application requirements of space equipment.
Related stocks suggested for attention include DRINDA (02865), Dongfang Risheng (300118.SZ), Mingyang Smart Energy (601615.SH), and GCL TECH (03800), among others.
Risks include slower-than-expected development of space data centers, demand growth falling short of expectations, and changes in industry policies.
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