As the Spring Festival holiday concludes, the baijiu market is gradually entering its traditional off-season. This year's holiday period revealed a distinct "dumbbell-shaped" consumption structure. Recent visits to Beijing's retail markets and holiday research indicate rising demand for both premium and mass-market baijiu, while mid-to-high-end products experienced sluggish sales, signaling a deep restructuring of consumption scenarios. The industry now faces the challenge of achieving a "curve overtaking" during the upcoming slow season.
Mid-to-high-end baijiu is facing a consumption gap. During the Spring Festival, market differentiation was evident not merely through brand fluctuations but along clear price-tier fractures. Market visits showed that premium and ultra-premium products like Moutai and Wuliangye not only maintained price stability but also achieved growth in both volume and price. According to Guosheng Securities' channel research, sales of these brands exceeded expectations year-over-year in many regions.
Feitian Moutai, a key market indicator, saw its wholesale price steadily recover during the holiday, with some areas reporting sold-out inventories. A Moutai distributor noted that quotas for January and February were exhausted before the holiday, leading to requests for March allocations. Similarly, Wuliangye's sales improved significantly, with its 39-degree product recording double-digit growth, particularly in banquet settings, where occasions more than doubled. Huachuang Securities' grassroots research in cities like Nanjing, Changsha, and Chengdu indicated stable wholesale prices for Wuliangye and inventory levels of about one month—well below the industry average—reflecting healthy channel conditions.
Cai Xuefei, a baijiu industry analyst, highlighted Wuliangye's strong performance during the holiday as a bright spot amid industry adjustments. By focusing on banquet markets, Wuliangye effectively captured the essential drinking demand of returning travelers, shifting from channel-driven to consumer-led sales through scenario-based marketing.
While the premium segment thrived, the mass-market segment also saw sustained growth. Products priced below 300 yuan, such as Luzhou Laojiao's six-year cellar-aged baijiu and Yanghe's Blue Classic, gained popularity among consumers. A tobacco and liquor store employee reported that alongside strong premium sales, mass-market products saw steady increases, driven largely by at-home consumption.
Notably, the mid-to-high-end segment (300-800 yuan), once considered a growth engine, encountered a "cold spell." These products lack the financial attributes and gifting necessity of premium brands while facing intense competition from local baijiu in the 100-300 yuan range, making them the weakest link in the "dumbbell." Research showed that brands like Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery saw growth in its 100-yuan series but weaker sales in its core mid-to-high-end products. The company noted that the Jiangsu market's performance in 2025 may mirror the broader industry, with both sub-100 yuan and above-800 yuan segments gaining slight market share.
The formation of the dumbbell-shaped consumption pattern during the Spring Festival reflects a deep restructuring of consumption scenarios that began last year. The recovery in the premium segment was primarily driven by the resurgence of high-end gifting occasions, such as family visits and business gifts, where brands like Moutai and Wuliangye demonstrated strong price resilience due to their brand barriers.
CSC Financial analysis pointed out that during the holiday, self-consumption and gifting demand stood out, with Moutai's sales, distribution, pricing, and new customer acquisition exceeding expectations. Wuliangye also outperformed, benefiting from strong brand power and cost-effectiveness. Ouyang Qianli, a beverage industry researcher, noted that baijiu consumption remains heavily reliant on traditional scenarios like business banquets and gift-giving, where high-alcohol, high-price products dominate.
Meanwhile, home consumption emerged as the dominant scenario. Data from the Ministry of Transport showed 4.72 billion cross-regional trips in the first 19 days of the holiday, up 5.1% year-over-year. This massive mobility fueled demand for family gatherings, reunion dinners, and casual social events. Consumers like Mr. Liu reported prioritizing practicality in social drinking, often choosing products in the 100-300 yuan range for their balance of taste and value.
Market research also highlighted the significant volume of at-home drinking. iiMedia Research data indicated that 25.26% of Chinese consumers drank alone, while 26.75% drank in both social and solitary settings, totaling over half, showing baijiu's integration into personal life scenes.
Industry insiders believe that baijiu demand has shifted, with at-home drinking creating substantial opportunities for products in the 100-300 yuan range. This trend requires producers to develop more segmented products, such as low-alcohol and high-value options.
As the holiday ends, the baijiu industry enters a months-long off-season. Amid the dumbbell-shaped market structure and unresolved inventory issues, maintaining operational stability and building momentum during the slow period will test producers' cyclical resilience.
Changjiang Securities noted in a report that the industry remains in a bottoming phase of active destocking. Producers should avoid pressuring repayments and instead ease channel burdens, using digital tools to prevent cross-regional sales and protect price systems stabilized during the holiday. The off-season offers an ideal window for recovery and improving producer-distributor relations.
Faced with inventory challenges and fierce competition, producers must deeply explore consumer needs. One industry participant suggested focusing on "home consumption" and "high cost-effectiveness" for product and marketing innovation. The off-season does not mean halted consumption but a return to daily, fragmented scenarios. Producers should develop suitable products for solo drinking and small gatherings.
This trend is already visible in primary markets, with leading producers adjusting their product mixes. Galaxy Securities reported that top firms are launching products aligned with new trends, such as low-alcohol and fruit-flavored baijiu (e.g., Wuliangye's low-alcohol options and Fenjiu's bamboo leaf green fruit-infused varieties). Home consumers seek "burden-free enjoyment," making it essential for 100-300 yuan products to enhance penetration in dining channels and offer targeted incentives like opening rewards to convert holiday traffic into long-term brand loyalty.
Beyond home consumption, the banquet market remains a strong driver during the off-season. Events like weddings, school acceptance celebrations, and birthdays provide rigid demand scenarios second only to the Spring Festival. The pressure on mid-to-high-end sales during the holiday may further push producers to explore growth in banquet settings.
Tian Zhuopeng, chairman of Zhuopeng Strategy Consulting, emphasized that banquets play a key role in baijiu sales, not only in volume and channels but also in brand promotion. They also leverage the influence of opinion leaders, especially in high-end events. While major producers are competing in this segment, no brand has yet achieved dominance.
Additionally, industry participants recommend replicating successful banquet strategies in county and rural markets, using refined services to secure liquor needs for every event. Capturing the banquet market will enable producers to find incremental growth even during the slower off-season.
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