Multiple sets of data from the first half of the year illustrate a new economic landscape characterized by stability, innovation, vitality, and integration, spanning from infrastructure investment and technological innovation to passenger flows, logistics, and foreign trade.
One key indicator of stability is the robust performance in infrastructure-related sectors. The sales growth of excavators reflects the effective implementation of policies to stabilize investment and the orderly commencement of major projects, with infrastructure investment continuing to provide foundational support for the macroeconomy. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association, excavator sales from January to June totaled 152,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 26.4%. Domestic sales reached 79,000 units, up 20.4%, while exports hit 73,300 units, surging 33.5%.
Leading indicators also point to a steady uptrend. In June, the business activity index for the civil engineering and construction sector rose above 55%, an increase of over 3 percentage points from the previous month. The new orders index ended an 11-month streak below 50%, rising to above 51%. High-frequency data, such as increased mill operation rates and cement shipment rates in June, indicate accelerated project starts and construction progress. Furthermore, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in June is expected to translate into physical infrastructure workload, providing further support for investment.
Against this backdrop of stable infrastructure investment, corporate profit growth and moderate price increases in the second quarter have further solidified the foundation for economic stability. Notably, the International Monetary Fund, in its World Economic Outlook Report released on July 8, revised its growth forecast for China's economy upward to 4.6%, making China one of the few major economies to receive an upward revision amidst a general downward adjustment in global growth expectations.
Innovation Driving Quality and Efficiency
Building upon this stable economic base, technological innovation is acting as an engine for improving economic quality, efficiency, and cultivating new growth drivers. The rapid development of China's artificial intelligence industry is a prime example. The daily national token call volume, a measure of AI activity, surged from 100 billion at the beginning of 2024 to over 140 trillion by March of this year, reflecting the vibrant development of the intelligent economy.
In the first half of the year, the AI industry accelerated its iteration with frequent achievements, and several large-scale models achieved new performance breakthroughs. The development of innovation-driven industries has driven investment in high-end sectors and sustained improvements in corporate profitability. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to May, investment in high-tech industries nationwide increased by 4.5% year-on-year. The electronics industry, benefiting from the explosion in demand for computing power and storage chips driven by the global AI technological revolution, saw profits surge by 103.9%, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of industrial enterprises above a designated size.
The capital market continues to provide precise support to hard-tech companies, fostering a virtuous cycle for innovative industries. Recent policy announcements have expanded the scope of listing standards to include the AI field, supporting the listing of hard-tech companies in areas like quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, and embodied intelligence on the Science and Technology Innovation Board.
Sustained Release of Market Vitality
While innovative momentum continues to accumulate, domestic consumer market vitality is being steadily released, becoming a crucial lever for driving the economy. High-frequency personnel movement demonstrates this dynamism. The summer travel season, which started on July 1, is expected to see national railways handle 1.01 billion passenger trips. Looking at the first half, holiday travel during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays saw significant year-on-year growth in both tourist numbers and spending. The immigration authorities recorded a historic high of 369 million inbound and outbound trips, a 10.8% increase year-on-year.
Logistics data also serves as a vital window into economic activity. In the first half, national railway freight volume reached 2.015 billion tonnes, up 1.8%. The courier sector hit a new milestone, with annual parcel volume exceeding 100 billion pieces by June 30, nine days earlier than the previous year. The resilience of the postal and courier industry reflects the steady growth of China's consumer market and the positive momentum of economic development.
Integrated Development and Shared Opportunities
China's export sector demonstrates continued resilience while sharing development opportunities with the world. For instance, a Chinese home appliance manufacturer's portable split air conditioner has become a hot-selling item in the European market, with sales of its air conditioning category in Europe surging over 70% in the first half of 2026. Leading indicators signal export strength, with the new export orders sub-index of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rising to 50.1% in June. Shipping data corroborates the positive foreign trade trend, with the China Containerized Freight Index showing a 3.4% increase in early July.
While consolidating export advantages, China is continuously expanding high-level opening-up, actively increasing imports of high-quality goods, and sharing development opportunities globally. A series of international promotion events have been held recently in cities like Berlin, London, and Bangkok. Analysts believe that demand from the AI industrial revolution for semiconductors and electronics processing trade, coupled with the competitive advantages of China's new energy industry chain and equipment manufacturing, jointly support export resilience. Improved domestic production and demand for resource imports are also expected to drive import growth.
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