Northeast Securities: New Refrigerator Energy Standards to Drive Significant Demand for VIP Panels

Northeast Securities released a research report stating that VIP (Vacuum Insulation Panel) is a high-efficiency thermal insulation material with performance far exceeding traditional materials. Among vacuum insulation panels, glass fiber has the lowest thermal conductivity, while fumed silica offers the longest lifespan. According to industry research, these two materials are the most widely used, accounting for 32% and 56% of the market share in 2024, respectively. The report recommends companies benefiting from the new refrigerator energy efficiency standards and rising demand for VIP panels and related raw materials: 1) Sinoma Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (688398.SH), a leader in the VIP panel industry; and 2) Zaisheng Technology (603601.SH), which is expected to acquire Mikron, the second-largest player in the VIP panel sector. Key insights from Northeast Securities include:

1. **Rapid Expansion of China’s VIP Panel Market with Concentrated Competition** China’s VIP panel market has grown rapidly, reaching RMB 4.67 billion in 2024. The home appliance segment is highly concentrated, with the top two players—Sinoma Science & Technology (48%) and Mikron (23%)—holding over 70% of the market share. High barriers, including patented technology, customer relationships, and brand recognition, make it difficult for new entrants to compete.

2. **New Refrigerator Energy Standards Make VIP Panels Essential** On May 30, 2025, China’s National Standards Committee issued updated refrigerator energy efficiency standards, effective June 1, 2026. The new standards are significantly stricter, with the current top-tier efficiency level falling below the new minimum threshold. The overall energy efficiency index will drop by over 50%, and only 0.6% of refrigerators on the market are expected to meet the new top-tier standard. The updated rules also introduce a "capacity utilization rate" metric, which will relax efficiency requirements for high-capacity models. VIP panels, which provide equivalent insulation at 10–15mm thickness compared to 100mm of traditional polyurethane foam, are now critical for compliance.

Following the EU’s ErP directive, stricter standards typically accelerate the adoption of high-efficiency products. After China’s 2016 energy efficiency update, the share of top-tier refrigerators grew at a 47% CAGR, reaching 85% in 2024. Given the clear advantages of VIP panels for meeting Tier 1 and 2 standards, their long-term penetration rate in refrigerators could exceed 90%.

3. **Government Subsidies to Boost High-Efficiency Refrigerator Sales** China’s appliance subsidy program, launched in August 2024, offers a 15% subsidy for Tier 2 efficiency refrigerators and an additional 5% for Tier 1 models. This has driven demand for mid-to-high-end refrigerators, with notable market share growth in the RMB 4,000–8,000 (online) and RMB 8,000–15,000 (offline) price segments. Continued subsidies are expected to further increase the market share of top-tier models.

4. **Refrigerators to Become the Largest Growth Driver for VIP Panels** Domestic refrigerator sales grew steadily from 2023 to H1 2025, reaching 22.62 million units (+9.0% YoY) in H1 2025. However, VIP panel penetration in China’s refrigerator market remains low (7.66% in 2024 vs. 70% in Japan). Under a neutral scenario, full adoption could take seven years, adding RMB 1.4 billion annually to the VIP panel market. An optimistic outlook, supported by subsidies, could shorten this to five years, with annual growth of RMB 1.828 billion.

**Risks**: Slower-than-expected policy implementation; lower VIP panel adoption; tariff disputes.