ROBOTPHOENIX (06871), now the "most oversubscribed IPO in Hong Kong stock history," saw its grey market price close up over 70%. The robotics company focused on light industrial applications concluded its share offering on the afternoon of May 13. According to the company's allotment results announcement, the public offering portion of ROBOTPHOENIX recorded an oversubscription of approximately 14,855.40 times, significantly surpassing the previous record of 11,464 times set by last year's GEM newcomer GOLDLEAF INT'L (08549), officially claiming the top spot for Hong Kong IPO oversubscription. Stimulated by intense market demand, data shows ROBOTPHOENIX surged over 103% at the open of the grey market on May 15. By the grey market close, its gains on Futu, Phillip, and Bright Smart were 79.18%, 75.57%, and 77.05% respectively, all exceeding 70%.
While such astonishing oversubscription multiples and substantial grey market gains reflect high market attention, the trajectory of the previous "oversubscription king," GOLDLEAF INT'L, undoubtedly serves as a cautionary tale for the exuberant market sentiment. GOLDLEAF INT'L had an issue price of HKD 0.50, closed up over 470% in the grey market, and opened 500% higher at HKD 3.00 on its listing day. However, after peaking for just two minutes, it rapidly retreated, eventually closing up 330%. Subsequently, the company's stock price began a prolonged decline, closing at HKD 0.228 as of May 13 this year, more than halved from its issue price. The essence of its post-listing performance was a play of "speculation on new shares - profit-taking - distribution" involving a micro-cap float.
As a Chapter 18C Specialist Technology Company on the HKEX, ROBOTPHOENIX's fundamental profile is not comparable to GOLDLEAF INT'L, which listed on the GEM. However, the "oversubscription king" label itself only indicates scarcity of shares, not investment value. Will the record-breaking ROBOTPHOENIX repeat GOLDLEAF INT'L's fate of receding tides, or will it chart an independent course based on industrial logic? Its initial performance after listing on May 18 may provide an observation window: short-term movements depend on capital games, while long-term value hinges on industrial execution—time will tell.
Scarcity of shares is the key reason for record oversubscription, whether for GOLDLEAF INT'L or ROBOTPHOENIX. Looking back at GOLDLEAF INT'L, its IPO involved a global offering of 100 million shares, with the public offering comprising 10%. At an issue price of HKD 0.50 per share, the fundraising amount for the public offering was only HKD 5 million. For this ROBOTPHOENIX IPO, the global offering consists of 24.6 million H shares, representing approximately 10.04% of the company's total share capital. Among these, 1.23 million shares are for the Hong Kong public offering, constituting 5% of the offered shares, while 23.37 million shares are for the international placing, making up 95%. With an issue price of HKD 30.50 per share, the fundraising amount for the Hong Kong public offering is only HKD 37.515 million.
Naturally, such a scarce number of shares in the public offering faced a "frenzied grab" by retail investors. After triggering the clawback mechanism due to approximately 14,855.40 times oversubscription, the proportion of public offering shares increased from 5% to 20%, amounting to 4.92 million shares, but the corresponding market value is still only HKD 150 million. Judging from the initial allocation ratio of the share offering, the public offering's starting proportion was only 5%. This extreme allocation structure aims to lock more "shares" in the hands of institutional investors participating in the international placing. The company hopes that by diluting the retail investor proportion, it can reduce speculative selling pressure and liquidity disturbances in the early post-listing period, thereby actively stabilizing the stock price.
However, compared to the狂热情绪 (frantic sentiment) of tens of thousands times oversubscription in the public offering, institutional investors in the international placing appear relatively calm. According to the allotment results announcement, the final number of shares offered under the international placing is 19.68 million, representing 80% of the total offered shares, with an oversubscription multiple of 9.77 times. This "hot retail, cold institutional" shareholding structure often预示着 (indicates) that the stock price in the early listing period will rely primarily on retail sentiment and turnover for support.
Notably, ROBOTPHOENIX did not introduce cornerstone investors. This means that the 80% of shares offered through the international placing can be sold directly on the listing day. The absence of long-term institutional funds acting as ballast in the international placing may significantly amplify volatility. More critically, ROBOTPHOENIX also did not set up a "greenshoe mechanism" for this IPO. The absence of this stabilizer means the stock price loses a buffer line of defense when facing profit-taking selling pressure in the market.
Operating in the highly sought-after robotics sector, combined with a 'pocket-sized' public float structure,惊人 (astounding) public offering热度 (heat), and impressive grey market performance, ROBOTPHOENIX has a high probability of attracting speculative capital炒作 (frenzy) after its official trading debut on May 18. However,热闹归热闹 (bustle aside), its fundamentals and current valuation level are the "invisible ceiling" determining the height of this capital feast.
Fundamentally, ROBOTPHOENIX is currently in a特殊阶段 (special phase) of rapid scaling expansion but is not yet profitable. Having深耕 (deeply cultivated) the industrial robotics field for years, ROBOTPHOENIX has精心设计 (carefully designed) an industrial robotics product portfolio for China's light industrial application scenarios. This portfolio covers parallel robots (Bat series), AGV/AMR mobile robots (Camel series), SCARA robots (Python series), wafer handling robots (Lobster series), and six-axis industrial robots (Mantis series), and possesses self-developed core technologies—control and vision systems (Gorilla and Kingkong series). The aforementioned robotics product portfolio constitutes ROBOTPHOENIX's standardized products, i.e., its robot本体业务 (body business). Based on this product portfolio, ROBOTPHOENIX also provides customers with integrated robotic customization solutions based on intelligent automation systems to address specific application scenarios in smart manufacturing, including (but not limited to) loading/unloading, sorting, pick-and-place, packaging, visual inspection, assembly, and gluing systems.
According to the prospectus, ROBOTPHOENIX's products and solutions have achieved diversified penetration across industries. In 2025, its revenue share from consumer electronics, fast-moving consumer goods, automotive parts & new energy, healthcare, semiconductors, and other sectors was 42%, 22.2%, 15.4%, 4.2%, 3.8%, and 12.4% respectively. While深耕 (deeply cultivating) industrial robotics, to seize the era opportunity of humanoid robotics, ROBOTPHOENIX officially launched its first wheel-legged humanoid robot, "Hogene," in November 2025. This robot features a bionic dual-arm structure and lifting column design, equipped with the self-developed YiBrain multimodal large model, enabling high-precision, high-power, and compliant force control operations.
In terms of performance, benefiting from the稳健成长 (steady growth) of robotics solutions and the爆发式成长 (explosive growth) of the robot body business, ROBOTPHOENIX achieved rapid overall revenue growth. Revenue from robotics solutions increased from CNY 175 million in 2023 to CNY 267 million in 2025, representing a CAGR of 23.52%. Revenue from the robot body business surged from CNY 25.673 million in 2023 to CNY 124 million in 2025, a CAGR of approximately 120%, with its share of total revenue rising from 12.8% to 31.9% during the period. Clearly, the robot body business, developed based on the robotics solutions business, has achieved显著成效 (significant results). As ROBOTPHOENIX's second growth curve, the standardized robot body business has experienced爆发式成长 (explosive growth), contributing关键力量 (key force) to the company's持续增长 (sustained revenue growth). Moreover, the standardized robot body business has明显作用 (significantly contributed) to improving ROBOTPHOENIX's gross margin under economies of scale. From 2023 to 2025, ROBOTPHOENIX's overall gross margin was 18.3%, 26.5%, and 24.8% respectively. The gross margin for the robot body business was 7.1%, 35.6%, and 29.6% respectively. The decline in this business's gross margin in 2025 was mainly due to changes in the product mix, but it remained明显高于 (significantly higher than) the robotics solutions business in the same period.
However, from a profit perspective, ROBOTPHOENIX is currently in a持续亏损 (sustained loss) position. From 2023 to 2025, ROBOTPHOENIX's adjusted net loss was approximately CNY 106 million, CNY 52.325 million, and CNY 86.637 million respectively. Losses have not decreased alongside持续扩张 (continuous revenue expansion), showing a反复态势 (fluctuating pattern), primarily due to significant increases in R&D expenses and administrative costs. Behind the increased R&D开支 (expenditure) is持续加剧 (intensifying) industry competition; the company aims to build long-term competitive barriers through坚定的研发投入 (determined R&D investment).
In the current industrial robotics market, foreign brands (such as ABB, Fanuc, KUKA, Yaskawa, etc.) still dominate the high-end industrial robotics market (e.g., core processes in automotive manufacturing—spot welding main lines, high-precision assembly). While domestic companies like ROBOTPHOENIX possess较强的进口替代能力 (strong import substitution capabilities) in non-core processes (e.g., small-batch assembly, logistics handling, sorting, and packaging in light industry), they have not yet突破 (broken through) high-end production segments (e.g., core processes like automotive body welding main lines,精密装配 (precision assembly)).
Regarding domestic brands, the industrial robotics field has numerous players. According to Qichacha data, as of 2025, there were as many as 1.058 million existing robotics-related enterprises in China (covering the entire industry chain including R&D,本体制造 (body manufacturing), system integration, sales, and related services). This includes leading companies like Inovance, Estun, Topstar, and a large number of中小厂商 (small and medium-sized manufacturers).中低端产品 (Mid-to-low-end products) (e.g., entry-level SCARA, parallel robots) suffer from严重同质化 (severe homogenization), with frequent price wars. It is not uncommon for companies to主动降价 (actively reduce prices) to seize market share.
Therefore, the realization of ROBOTPHOENIX's long-term investment value ultimately depends on whether it can maintain its technological and application scenario barriers in the increasingly competitive industrial robotics赛道 (sector), thereby capturing greater market红利 (dividends) during the industry's high-growth expansion. Currently, the company remains in a phase of持续的快速扩张期 (continuous rapid expansion).
In terms of valuation, ROBOTPHOENIX's IPO valuation is HKD 7.471 billion, representing an 88.66% increase compared to its post-money valuation of CNY 3.604 billion (approximately HKD 3.96 billion) after its last funding round in May 2025. This corresponds to a静态PS估值 (static P/S ratio) of 17.57x based on 2025 figures. After the grey market price closed up 70%, ROBOTPHOENIX's static P/S valuation has risen to 29.89x. A valuation level接近 (approaching) 30x static P/S is already not cheap. After all, compared to peers like DOBOT and优必选 (UBTech), ROBOTPHOENIX's valuation level is already slightly higher than both. This implies that ROBOTPHOENIX's reasonable value has essentially been priced in during the grey market phase. However, if its market capitalization continues to surge significantly under高昂的市场情绪炒作 (exuberant market sentiment speculation), then ROBOTPHOENIX—with no cornerstone investors to lock up shares and no greenshoe to stabilize the price—will have its stock price完全暴露于获利盘的抛压之下 (fully exposed to profit-taking selling pressure). This极易引发 (easily triggers)剧烈 (sharp) valuation回归 (mean reversion), posing极高的短期回撤风险 (extremely high short-term drawdown risk) for those chasing the rally.
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