Zhongtai Securities Co.,Ltd. (SHA: 600918) has released a research report stating that the electrification transformation of two-wheelers will gradually diffuse along the path of first targeting the Indochina Peninsula, followed by the Malay Archipelago. Multiple marginal changes are converging, with 2026 being a pivotal turning point. The adaptation period for the new national standard for electric two-wheelers has concluded, with profitability expected to improve quarter-over-quarter starting from Q2 2026. Against a backdrop of persistently high global oil prices, overseas catalysts are intensifying. The sector's valuation remains at a relatively low historical percentile, suggesting opportunities for strategic positioning during market dips. The focus for leading domestic companies lies in tracking overseas volume ramp-up, progress toward breakeven, and the pace of recovery in domestic sales. Zhongtai Securities' primary views are as follows:
The energy dilemma is creating a rigid demand for transportation electrification in Southeast Asia, with high oil prices in 2026 accelerating the transition pace. Southeast Asian countries generally have weak oil self-sufficiency and reserves far below international standards, making their national economies directly vulnerable to oil price fluctuations. The geopolitical conflicts in 2026 have further intensified this structural contradiction, prompting countries to accelerate their electrification transition by drawing on China's experience. However, constrained by geographical conditions, the progress of electrification will vary across countries. The Indochina Peninsula, dominated by plains with stable power grids, has conditions similar to China's major cities a decade ago, providing a foundation for transportation electrification. In contrast, progress in the Malay Archipelago is relatively lagging. Therefore, it is judged that the electrification of two-wheelers will spread gradually, first in the Indochina Peninsula and later in the Malay Archipelago.
Southeast Asia represents a substantial market with an existing stock of 210 million fuel-powered motorcycles, offering Chinese electric two-wheeler companies a dual benefit from electrification penetration and market share gains. The ASEAN six countries have a fuel motorcycle fleet exceeding 210 million units, making it one of the world's densest two-wheeler markets. While the fuel motorcycle market is currently highly concentrated among leading players, the market share for electric two-wheelers remains highly fragmented. As leading domestic companies like Yadea and Aima ramp up their overseas deployment, leveraging their cost advantages and economies of scale from vertical integration in core components, they are poised to capture the dual红利 of rising electrification penetration and market share consolidation. Based on calculations, the long-term保有量 in populated areas could exceed 90 million units. Assuming a unit value of 4,000 RMB and a 5-year replacement cycle, the ultimate annual market size is estimated at approximately 75.4 billion RMB. Assuming net profit margins of 8%, 11%, and 13%, the corresponding annual net profits would be 6.0, 8.3, and 9.8 billion RMB, respectively.
Multiple marginal changes are converging, making 2026 a critical inflection year. First, capacity localization: Yadea and Aima's Southeast Asian factories are commencing集中投产, gradually shifting from整车 and散件 export models to local production, significantly saving on tariff costs. Second, policy catalysts: Hanoi, Vietnam, will implement a ban on fuel motorcycles in urban areas starting in July 2026, with phased expansion to outer rings subsequently. Third, product iteration: the domestic high-speed electric motorcycle segment is rapidly upgrading, with高端配置 accelerating their trickle-down to mainstream price segments. Fourth, supply chain support: upstream core component companies in batteries and motors are following整车龙头 to Southeast Asia for production布局, driving continuous compression of整车 costs.
Leading companies have passed the trough in domestic sales, with overseas capacity ramp-up opening new growth curves. Yadea: the pressure from the domestic新国标 transition has passed, with Q2 sales expected to recover sequentially. Combined with a low base in H2, year-over-year improvement is highly certain. Overseas, Southeast Asian demand remains strong, but capacity is still in a ramp-up phase. As overseas factories gradually释放产能, economies of scale are expected to drive overseas operations toward reducing losses and approaching breakeven. Aima: Q1 performance was at a yearly low, primarily due to集中费用 during the新国标 transition period. Currently, prices have stabilized, rebates have been reduced, and cost pressures are gradually subsiding, making a sequential improvement in profitability anticipated. Factories in Vietnam and Indonesia have commenced production. Overseas operations, starting from a low base, are expected to contribute incremental growth. The focus is on the extent of profitability improvement in Q2.
Risk warnings: risks of景气度 falling short of expectations; policy and compliance risks; market competition risks; supply chain risks; and risks related to data updates and测算.
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