Market Analysis
On the geopolitical front, reports indicate that under Qatar's mediation, US-Iran negotiations have achieved a breakthrough, with relevant procedural obstacles now resolved. Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the government is working to resolve issues through dialogue, and Iran's Supreme Leader has granted the government certain authorities. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that the indirect consultations between Iran and the US conducted through mediators Qatar and Pakistan have been "very intensive," and that Iran has put forward its own conditions. US President Trump stated that he will not launch strikes against Iran after the midterm elections. Iran hopes to reach a solution as soon as possible, and this may be achievable.
On the economic data front, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for October rose 1 percentage point from September to 55.5, marking 10 consecutive months in expansion territory and the second-highest level in over four years. The manufacturing production index rose to its highest level since late 2021. The new orders index also climbed to its highest level since July.
Futures Market and Trading Volume:
On 2026-11-02, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 849.08 yuan/gram and closed at 836.76 yuan/gram, a change of -2.15% from the previous trading day's close. In yesterday's night session, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 835.70 yuan/gram and closed at 849.06 yuan/gram, up 1.47% from yesterday's afternoon close.
On 2026-11-02, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,908.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,885.00 yuan/kg, a change of -1.72% from the previous trading day's close. In yesterday's night session, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,876 yuan/kg and closed at 12,155 yuan/kg, up 2.53% from yesterday's afternoon close.
US Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring:
On 2026-11-02, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.94%, a change of -0.04% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.38%, a change of 0.01% from the previous trading day.
Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume:
On 2026-11-02, on the Au2612 contract, long positions changed by -5,644 lots from the previous day, while short positions changed by -8,280 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 419,624 lots, a change of 32.86% from the previous trading day. For Shanghai silver, on the Ag2612 contract, long positions changed by -6,720 lots and short positions changed by -1,444 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,256,443 lots, a change of 19.59% from the previous trading day.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking:
In terms of precious metals ETFs, yesterday's gold ETF holdings stood at 1,040.513 tonnes, down 1.14 tonnes from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings stood at 15,645.73 tonnes, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking:
Futures-spot price spread: On 2026-11-02, in terms of domestic premium, yesterday's gold domestic premium was 24.12 yuan/gram, and the silver domestic premium was 190.76 yuan/kg. Gold-silver ratio: Yesterday the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver main contracts was approximately 70.40, a change of 3.41% from the previous trading day, while the overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.46, a change of 3.44% from the previous trading day.
Fundamentals:
Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D Market Monitoring: On the previous trading day (2026-11-02), the trading volume of gold on the SGE was 51,320 kg, a change of 78.94% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 585,708 kg, a change of 0.68% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 14,520 kg.
Strategy
Gold: Neutral. Currently, geopolitical risk sentiment has eased somewhat, but overseas equity markets remain highly volatile. Under liquidity risk, demand for gold investment may weaken slightly, so gold prices are expected to be mainly range-bound in the near term.
Silver: Neutral. Currently, the logic for silver is similar to that for gold, but overseas equity markets remain highly volatile. Under liquidity risk, prices are also expected to remain in a range-bound pattern.
Arbitrage: On hold.
Options: On hold.
Risks
Overseas liquidity risk. Speculative positions continuing to exit.
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