On July 14th, the Hong Kong-listed AI company MINIMAX-W (00100) saw its share price strengthen significantly during the session, with intraday gains exceeding 15%, as market capital continued to flow back, leading to a notable upward trend in the stock.
Since the share lock-up expiration on July 9th, MiniMax has successively received updated rating views from several leading international and domestic investment banks, with market attention continuing to rise. On July 11th, JPMorgan issued a Hold rating. On July 13th, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) followed up with a research report reiterating a Buy rating. On July 14th, UBS and Goldman Sachs issued Buy ratings one after another. It is relatively rare in the current market environment of divergent AI sector performance for multiple major international banks to simultaneously publish updated rating views that are uniformly bullish.
UBS's latest report shows a Buy rating on MiniMax, expressing optimism about the company's global development prospects for multimodal large language models and its commercial growth potential. Goldman Sachs simultaneously maintains its Buy rating on MiniMax, continuing to be positive on the company's medium to long-term development logic. JPMorgan's latest rating is Hold, primarily based on cautious considerations regarding industry competition and the pace of short-term profitability realization.
Goldman Sachs previously set a target price of HKD 860 for the company. Its research report points out that industry price competition has reached a rational inflection point, with DeepSeek V4 implementing time-differentiated pricing, indicating that the industry-wide low-price war that began in late April is gradually concluding. MiniMax's proprietary M3 model, leveraging its own optimized computing power and a lightweight, efficient architecture, is priced at $0.22 per million tokens, giving it a significant profitability advantage compared to peers.
Domestic leading institution CICC is also optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential. Research data indicates that MiniMax's revenue for the 2025 fiscal year is projected to increase significantly by 159% year-over-year, with gross margin improving to 25.4%. The pace of commercial implementation has exceeded market expectations. The high R&D investment at this stage leading to temporary losses is common in the industry. Following the successful completion of the company's HKD 16 billion refinancing plan, funds will be fully allocated to computing power reserves and large model iteration R&D, continuously solidifying its technological moat. The technological advantages and commercial growth potential offer significant long-term imagination.
Market concerns regarding pressure from the share lock-up expiration have also been sufficiently alleviated. In late June, two core strategic shareholders, Alibaba and miHoYo, publicly stated their intention to hold shares for the long term, continuing to support the company's development with no plans for short-term divestment. Additionally, the company's founding team voluntarily set a lock-up period of 12 months, far exceeding the industry standard of six months. The shares unlocked in this first round do not include those held by the founding team and employees.
Industry analysts stated that after the previous period of continuous adjustment, MiniMax's valuation has fully absorbed short-term negative factors. Coupled with the recovery in the industry pricing environment, the upcoming launch of a new video model, and other growth drivers, today's stock price increase is a direct reflection of market capital re-evaluating the company's core value.
The market disturbance caused by the short-term lock-up expiration has gradually cleared. In the medium to long term, with the arrival of the AI industry's profitability recovery cycle, the company's global computing power layout, multimodal product portfolio, and continuously high-growth commercialization capabilities will continue to release value. As a rare Hong Kong-listed, locally-rooted global large model enterprise, its subsequent valuation recovery and earnings growth potential are worth continued attention.
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