East Money Securities released a research report indicating that, according to industry sources, multiple domestic and international tire manufacturers have recently issued price adjustment notices, announcing price increases of approximately 2%-5% starting October. This move is expected to stimulate downstream restocking demand. Additionally, the recovery in container truck and road freight demand is likely to boost all-steel tire consumption and replacement demand. On the export front, the preliminary effects of Europe’s anti-dumping investigation on demand are beginning to emerge. Despite challenges such as high raw material costs, tariffs, anti-dumping investigations, and intensified domestic competition in the first half of the year, overseas factory construction continues to progress, further expanding the global market share of Chinese tire manufacturers. Key insights from East Money Securities include:
**Raw Materials: Natural Rubber Enters Peak Season, Other Prices Remain Stable** In September, the tire raw material price index stood at 90.12, ranking in the 4th percentile historically since 2021. With the traditional peak season for natural rubber and improving demand, prices may see an uptick, while other materials remain stable. Butadiene averaged RMB 9,271.74 per ton, down 1.26% month-on-month (MoM) and 30.98% year-on-year (YoY). Natural rubber averaged $1,839.57 per ton, up 2.06% MoM but down 6.77% YoY. Styrene-butadiene rubber averaged RMB 12,239 per ton, up 0.32% MoM but down 23.14% YoY. Carbon black prices remained flat MoM at RMB 7,500 per ton, down 19.35% YoY.
**Production: Domestic Output Rises, Utilization Rates Steady** In August 2025, China’s rubber tire output reached 109 million units, down 11.44% YoY but up 15.78% MoM. In September, the average operating rate for all-steel tires was 64.95%, up 1.82 percentage points (pct) MoM and 3.89 pct YoY, while semi-steel tire utilization stood at 71.23%, up 0.81 pct MoM but down 8.54 pct YoY. The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) forecasts 2025 U.S. tire shipments at 340.2 million units. Compared to 2024, OEM shipments for passenger, light truck, and truck tires are expected to decline by 2.0%, 1.4%, and 8.0%, respectively, totaling a reduction of 1.4 million units. Replacement tire shipments are projected to grow by 1.2%, 2.5%, and 3.7%, respectively, adding 4.4 million units.
**Exports: Domestic Shipments Dip, Vietnam’s U.S. Exports Surge** China exported 62.99 million new pneumatic rubber tires in August, up 1.84% YoY but down 5.51% MoM. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam’s rubber product exports totaled $111 million in September 2025, down 8% MoM but up 19% YoY, with $49 million shipped to the U.S., down 3% MoM but up 43% YoY. Thailand’s passenger tire exports fell 13% MoM and 10% YoY to 7.184 million units in August, while commercial tire exports dropped 9% MoM and 2% YoY to 2.621 million units. U.S.-bound passenger tire shipments declined 14% MoM and 5% YoY to 4.0719 million units, while commercial tire exports fell 6% MoM but rose 10% YoY to 1.3459 million units.
**Demand: Semi-Steel Market Stable, All-Steel Recovery Expected** According to Michelin’s September market observations, global passenger and light truck OEM tire demand fell 2% YoY, while replacement demand rose 1%. Global truck and bus OEM demand (excluding China) was flat YoY, with replacement demand up 2%. China remains the key driver of cumulative OEM growth, supported by public subsidies and export markets. Regionally, September OEM demand in China dipped slightly, while Europe saw declines due to automotive sector pressures. Replacement demand diverged, with North America declining but Europe and China posting gains. Truck and bus OEM demand remained under pressure, with North America sluggish, Europe rebounding modestly, and South America’s replacement market surging 13% YoY. China’s heavy truck sales continue to grow on policy support, and with road transport demand improving, all-steel tire demand is poised for gradual recovery.
**Stock Picks: Favor Companies Expanding Overseas Capacity** East Money Securities recommends firms actively building overseas production capacity with competitive advantages, including Sailun Tire (601058.SH), Zhongce Rubber (603049.SH), Sentury Tire (002984.SZ), and Linglong Tire (601966.SH).
**Risks:** Policy uncertainties in investment destinations; rising raw material costs; tariff and anti-dumping risks.
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