Today, the three major A-share indices closed higher after a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index marking its eighth straight day of gains. Trading volume across the two markets expanded to 2.18 trillion yuan compared to the previous session. Overseas, considering political factors such as next year's US mid-term elections and the Federal Reserve Chair transition, an accommodative stance is likely to remain the primary theme. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently anticipates the Fed may implement two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points next year. The policy orientation of the new Fed Chair could potentially influence the rate cut trajectory in the second half of 2026. Domestically, both export volume and the trade surplus have reached record highs this year, demonstrating the optimization of China's export structure and direction, thereby providing resilience for exports. With Sino-US economic and trade relations entering a phase of temporary warmth next year, exports are expected to maintain a relatively strong performance. In the equity market, risk appetite has improved this week. The recent appreciation trend of the Renminbi against the US Dollar has boosted market expectations regarding capital flows. However, subsequent support from fundamental improvements and further recovery in corporate earnings is still awaited, suggesting short-term market conditions may remain volatile.
On December 25th, the offshore Renminbi broke through the psychologically significant "7" level against the US Dollar during trading, a first in 15 months, reaching a high of 6.9985. Concurrently, the onshore Renminbi approached the "7" mark, touching a high of 7.0053, its highest level in 15 months.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced on December 26th the official launch of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund. This fund has already established three regional sub-funds in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, completing industrial and commercial registration on December 22nd with a total scale exceeding 120 billion yuan. With a lengthy duration of 20 years, the fund will primarily focus on cutting-edge hard technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and hydrogen energy storage, committed to investing early, in small ventures, and for the long term.
To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on December 25th, using a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning bid method, with a maturity of one year. In December, the MLF operations continued to exceed maturities, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan. Combined with the excess rollover of outright reverse repos, these two tools collectively released 300 billion yuan in long-term liquidity.
On December 26th, the three major A-share indices closed higher. By the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3963.68 points, up 0.10%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13603.89 points, rising 0.54%; the ChiNext Index reached 3243.88 points, gaining 0.14%; and the STAR 100 Index was at 1448.96 points, increasing by 0.08%. Among Shenwan's primary industries, Nonferrous Metals, Power Equipment, and Steel led the gains, rising 3.69%, 1.40%, and 1.34% respectively. Electronics, Light Industry Manufacturing, and Communications were among the top decliners, falling 0.71%, 0.61%, and 0.60% respectively. A total of 1,819 stocks advanced, while 3,239 stocks declined.
The total market turnover was 2181.264 billion yuan, higher than the previous trading session. The balance of margin trading and securities lending closed at 2545.430 billion yuan yesterday, showing an increase from the prior day.
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