On April 19th, Iran unexpectedly announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, April 18th, less than a day after it was briefly reopened for navigation. The incident quickly drew significant attention from the international community. As a critical strategic waterway for global oil transportation, the repeated opening and closing of the strait directly exposes the fragility of US-Iran negotiations and casts another shadow over the Middle East peace process. Following the event, former President Trump issued a clear statement warning that Iran cannot use this tactic to pressure the United States; multiple vessels attempting to pass through were intercepted by gunfire, further escalating regional tensions. The repeated closures of the strait directly impact global energy markets. This channel handles approximately one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil shipments, and historical disruptions have triggered the most severe oil supply crises, leading to sharp spikes in oil prices. Against the backdrop of ongoing US sanctions and a fragile ceasefire agreement, this renewed closure is highly likely to increase energy risk premiums.
Overall, this event highlights the amplifying effect of Middle East geopolitical risks on commodities. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of US-Iran negotiations, the implementation of the ceasefire, and actual shipping data. Short-term oil price volatility is expected to rise significantly, while gold prices are likely to remain resilient, driven by both safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts. Medium to long-term trends will still depend on whether regional peace can be achieved and whether global energy supply and demand fundamentals can recover. Market participants should remain cautious, implement risk hedging strategies, and prepare for ongoing uncertainty.
Gold Outlook for Next Week: Frequent news shifts on Friday led to a classic rally-and-retreat pattern for gold prices. Initially, prices surged to $4891 following the strait's reopening, but then retreated to around $4830 after Iran announced the strait's closure again, ultimately consolidating above $4800. This price action reflects intense divergence between bulls and bears. For medium to long-term traders, the current level is not suitable for hasty entry; however, for short-term traders, gold still possesses momentum to test the $4900-$5000 range, though only quick, in-and-out strategies are advisable. The medium-term consolidation phase is not over; if this rebound faces resistance near $5000, the risk of another pullback remains. Therefore, medium to long-term investors should continue to wait patiently for a pullback opportunity.
From a daily chart perspective, gold is firmly trading above the Bollinger Band midline and the 10-day moving average at $4750, while also holding above the 100-day moving average, indicating a clear short-term bullish bias. The ongoing contraction of the Bollinger Band suggests that market volatility is gradually compressing, signaling that a new directional move is approaching. On the indicator front: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded above the neutral 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum has effectively recovered and has not yet entered overbought territory; its prior stabilization and recovery from oversold conditions show that downward pressure has eased significantly. For the MACD indicator, although the DIFF line remains below the zero axis, it has formed a golden cross and is trending upward, with the histogram showing continued expansion, suggesting bearish momentum is waning and bullish力量 is gradually strengthening. Key level references: Primary resistance sits at the confluence of the 50-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band around $4950, where阶段性 selling pressure is likely if bulls continue their advance. Key support: Initial support is at the Bollinger Band midline around $4650, while the area near the 10-day moving average at $4770 has become a crucial defensive level for short-term pullbacks. The suggested trading strategy for gold next week is short-term focused: look for buying opportunities based on support between $4780-$4790, targeting a rise, and consider taking profits or shorting near resistance between $4900-$4960, adhering strictly to short-term trading discipline.
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