According to ZhiTong Finance APP, the global surge in demand for gas-fired power generation, driven by the data center construction boom, manufacturing expansion, and the electrification transition, has made it difficult for producers such as Mitsubishi, GE Vernova, and Siemens Energy to keep up.
Mitsubishi Power stated that demand for gas turbines has outpaced manufacturing capacity, causing delivery wait times to lengthen continuously, with delivery schedules pushed out to 2031.
McKinsey estimates that global data center power demand will grow from 82GW in 2025 to 219GW in 2030, with AI data centers accounting for approximately 156GW, or more than 70%. If 30% of new power demand is assumed to rely on gas turbines, data centers alone will add roughly 41GW of gas turbine demand from 2025 to 2030.
In North America, a large number of AIDC projects are constrained by the long expansion cycles of public power grids and aging grid equipment, leading to the rapid rise of self-built power plant models. Gas turbines have become an important technology route for primary and backup power supply at overseas AI data centers.
In July, Musk acquired mobile gas turbine and diesel generator set operator APREnergy for approximately $1 billion; the latter owns more than 1GW of trailer-mounted gas and diesel generator sets. The acquisition will directly support the massive future electricity demand of xAI's Colossus supercomputer in Memphis, Tennessee, providing stable power guarantees for its AI computing infrastructure.
In addition, SpaceX has begun construction of a large gas turbine blade foundry next to its Starlink factory in Bastrop, Texas, which will bring gas turbine deployment online 18 months earlier. SpaceX's choice to enter the gas turbine supply chain directly reflects how large AI infrastructure projects are resolving capacity constraints on the energy side through vertical integration.
The United States accounts for 45% of global data center electricity consumption. International energy research firm Wood Mackenzie predicts that the US will add approximately 63GW of gas-fired power generation capacity by 2030, more than double the net increase over the past five years.
Soochow Securities stated that the acceleration of AI data center construction in North America and the long expansion cycles of local power grids have left overseas gas turbine and cooling equipment manufacturers with tight capacity and delayed production schedules. Power and temperature control have become important constraints on the deployment of computing projects, and it is recommended to focus on gas turbines and chillers, capturing the two main lines of power supply and temperature control respectively.
China Securities believes that global gas turbine orders remain robust, with the scale of US gas-fired power generation under construction and the share of AIDC-related projects rising simultaneously. Domestic gas turbines, with shorter delivery cycles, higher cost-effectiveness, and continuously strengthening product competitiveness, are expected to accelerate their acquisition of overseas market share. It remains firmly bullish on the overseas expansion of domestic gas turbines.
Related concept stocks:
Dongfang Electric (01072): Ranked among the top domestically in independent F-class heavy-duty gas turbines, with the G50-type 50MW gas turbine main unit localized, achieving complete machine exports to Kazakhstan; it has extensive engineering achievements in large domestic power stations and gas storage peak-shaving projects, while also developing smaller power class independent gas turbine products such as the G15.
Shanghai Electric (02727): Conducts deep technical cooperation with overseas enterprises and possesses F/H-class heavy-duty gas turbine manufacturing capabilities; the 300MW-class F-class prototype has completed final assembly, hydrogen blending combustion technology continues to iterate, and it provides equipment for peak-shaving scenarios in China's new power system.
Harbin Electric (01133): Recently, Harbin Electric developed a 16MW-class gas turbine that was connected to the grid for trial operation. The 16MW-class gas turbine independently developed by Harbin Electric Turbine features a three-rotor structural design, with overall thermal efficiency exceeding 36% and clean emission performance reaching internationally advanced levels. It has outstanding advantages in scenarios such as mechanical drive, distributed energy, emergency power, and offshore platform power generation, and can strongly support the construction of a new power system dominated by renewable energy.
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