Citi has released a research report indicating that BYD's ultra-fast charging ecosystem is poised to become a fresh revenue stream. The bank projects gross margins for this segment to reach 63% and 59% in 2027 and 2030, respectively, with net margins of 20% and 12% over the same period. By 2030, this ecosystem is expected to contribute approximately RMB 21.6 billion in net profit, with revenue projected at RMB 177.9 billion.
Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on BYD's H-shares, with a target price of HK$142. The report notes that based on a 2027 discounted valuation—applying an 8x price-to-earnings ratio for 2030 and discounting back at a 12% weighted average cost of capital—the ecosystem is valued at RMB 123 billion, equivalent to RMB 15.7 per share. This represents roughly 17% of BYD's current combined A-share and H-share market capitalization.
The bank further estimates that for every 1% increase in BYD's new energy vehicle market share, its research and development and depreciation amortization costs per vehicle could decline by 2.6%. This would translate to a net profit gain of RMB 881 per vehicle, equating to an additional RMB 5.3 billion in net profit for 2027.
Additionally, Citi anticipates that the national "15th Five-Year Plan" initiatives for intelligent connected new energy vehicles will drive industry consolidation. This is expected to benefit leading automakers through improved operating leverage and cost reductions. The report highlights that market concentration across domestic fuel vehicles, battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and extended-range electric vehicles has already increased, suggesting that aggressive price wars are no longer a rational strategy.
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