A report from CLSA noted that for the fourth fiscal quarter ending March 31, CHOW TAI FOOK's same-store sales in mainland China were flat year-on-year, aligning with the firm's projections. In contrast, same-store sales in Hong Kong and Macau surged 40% compared to the previous year, exceeding expectations. The performance in mainland China was impacted by demand being pulled forward into the third fiscal quarter ahead of a price increase in January and February, coupled with volatility in gold prices. However, improvement was observed in March and continuing into April, with company-operated stores recording positive same-store sales growth. The brokerage anticipates challenges from a higher base of comparison and ongoing gold price fluctuations. Consequently, CLSA lowered its target price-to-earnings ratio from 13 times to 10 times, bringing it in line with the industry average. The price target was reduced from HK$14.20 to HK$11.20, while the "Hold" rating was maintained.
The report indicated that same-store sales growth in Hong Kong and Macau accelerated to 40.1%, benefiting from improved transportation links, value-added tax benefits, and a 141% year-on-year increase in sales from Hainan's duty-free shops. Management expects non-mainland revenue growth in fiscal year 2027 to outpace that of fiscal 2026. They also project that the number of net store closures in FY2027 will be lower than the 954 stores closed in FY2026, estimated at around 500 stores. CLSA raised its revenue and profit forecasts for CHOW TAI FOOK for fiscal years 2026 through 2028 by 1% to 2%, reflecting the better-than-expected fourth-quarter performance and an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong, Macau, and overseas markets.
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