Chinese EV Demand Sets Record; Geely Auto Soars 5%

Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese electric vehicle makers gained on Monday. 

GAC Group rose 21%; Geely Auto rose 5.3%; XPeng rose 4.2%; BYD rose 3%; NIO, Xiaomi rose 2.3%.

Monthly electric vehicle deliveries at NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto set a record in November. Things are looking even better for December.

EV demand isn’t an issue in China. Pricing, however, continues to be a struggle.

Sunday, NIO reported 20,575 deliveries for November, up about 29% from a year ago. Based on recent guidance, given with third-quarter earnings, NIO expects to deliver about 32,000 cars in December, a record, and up about 77% from a year ago.

Li reported 48,740 deliveries for November, up about 19% from a year ago. Based on recent guidance from Li’s third-quarter earnings, the company should deliver about 65,000 cars in December, up 29% from a year ago.

XPeng delivered 30,895 vehicles in November, up about 54% from a year ago. The midpoint of its fourth-quarter guidance, given on its third-quarter earnings report, was 89,000 cars, implying December deliveries of about 34,000 units.

December’s implied numbers would be a record for all three auto makers. EV demand in China is still solid. The bigger problem is competition. Citi analyst Jeff Chung recently wrote that the Chinese car market is still concerned about a “potential price war in 2025.”

He projects 2024 all-electric vehicle sales of 7.8 million units, up about 28% from 2023. Sales in 2025 should be up another 17% to 9.1 million cars. The problem: The industry has the capacity to make 28 million all-electric cars annually, according to Chung’s calculations. Capacity utilization that low typically isn’t great for profit margins.

At least there is demand. Combined, the three Chinese EV makers sold 100,210 vehicles in November. That’s a monthly record. December guidance implies about 131,000 cars sold, another record.