The spotlight shifted to innovative drugs today. Following lithium batteries yesterday, innovative drugs took center stage on March 27. During the morning session, the innovative drug sector surged, with
The Hong Kong market reacted as well.
Additionally, the core compound patent for Novo Nordisk's semaglutide expired in China. The expiration breaks the long-standing monopoly of this product, known as the "global drug king," and has sparked market enthusiasm for Chinese weight-loss drug concept stocks.
The innovative drug sector collectively surged on the morning of March 27, rallying over 3%.
In Hong Kong, innovative drug stocks also experienced a collective upswing, with the sector gaining nearly 3%.
In its announcement,
In 2025, the company received over $1.6 billion in upfront collaboration payments, with total deal values exceeding $22 billion. By building its own capabilities and pursuing strategic collaborations, such as the Co-Co model with Takeda, the company is expanding its global team and strengthening international R&D, regulatory, and commercial capabilities.
Furthermore, the core compound patent for Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has expired in China. Semaglutide is a novel long-acting GLP-1 analog developed by Novo Nordisk. Its significant weight-loss and blood sugar-lowering effects have made it the top-selling prescription drug globally and a core engine for Novo Nordisk's performance growth. According to a report by CIC Consulting, the potential of the domestic GLP-1 drug market is substantial. It is estimated that by 2032, the market size for treating type 2 diabetes will reach RMB 68.8 billion, and the market for obesity treatment will hit RMB 42.7 billion, with the two core indications combined exceeding RMB 100 billion.
Stock price increases often stem from expectation gaps. Huatai Securities believes the Chinese innovative drug sector is at the beginning of a long cycle, with high-quality assets being exported globally, a potential not fully reflected in A/H-share valuations. The number and value of outbound licensing deals for Chinese innovative drugs have hit record highs, with their global share significantly increasing. The sustained growth of business development activities is highly predictable. There is a significant expectation gap regarding the contribution of these BD activities to sustained cash flow.
At major conferences between April and June, such as AACR, ASCO, and ADA, a large amount of clinical data will be disclosed. The readout of key data is expected to have a positive impact on the overall market. Platform companies generating continuous, high-value cash flow through ongoing BD deals represent a "China model" that is not yet fully valued. Innovative drug assets are relatively undervalued in A/H-shares, primarily due to systematic underestimation of overseas revenue by A/H capital markets and misjudgment of the predictability of future overseas cash flows for Chinese innovative drug companies. BD for platform companies is sustainable and is becoming a primary business model.
It is noteworthy that the 2026 Government Work Report proposed "building emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits, aerospace, biomedicine, and low-altitude economy." Compared to the 2025 report's phrasing of "cultivating and strengthening emerging industries and future industries," the positioning of biomedicine has been significantly elevated, being placed for the first time at the level of an "emerging pillar industry," underscoring its enhanced strategic importance.
Guosheng Securities believes that for the pharmaceutical sector, this signifies that the policy positioning of biomedicine is being upgraded from "cultivating emerging tracks" to "an important pillar direction for economic growth and industrial upgrading." Within this, innovative drugs, as the highest value-added core segment of the biomedicine industry, stand to benefit particularly clearly.
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