With the 2026 World Cup just days underway, Goldman Sachs has updated its championship prediction model. The host nation, USA, delivered a surprise 4-1 victory over Paraguay, exceeding expectations and emerging as the biggest early-stage "dark horse," while Spain remains at the top of the list of favorites.
In its latest report, Goldman Sachs notes that after incorporating the opening match results and the latest changes in Elo ratings, its model, based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations, shows Spain with a 24.7% probability of winning the tournament. This places them significantly ahead of traditional powerhouses like France, Argentina, and Brazil.
This model has previously successfully predicted the performances of teams like Germany and Spain. Its core framework integrates team Elo ratings, player capabilities, historical performance records, and tournament pathways, simulating match outcomes on a large scale.
However, the World Cup is never short of upsets. In 2022, Argentina was not the pre-tournament favorite but ultimately lifted the trophy, while several highly-fancied European giants were eliminated early. Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that each match will dynamically affect a team's Elo rating and progression path, meaning championship probabilities will be continuously adjusted.
For now, Spain remains the team closest to the trophy, while the USA team has already become one of the tournament's biggest surprises with its emphatic opening victory.
USA's Opening Victory Boosts Its Prospects
The most notable variable from the opening match came from the host nation, the USA.
Goldman Sachs did not anticipate such a scoreline for the USA pre-match, but the team ultimately defeated Paraguay 4-1. Forward Folarin Balogun scored twice and is the only USA player included in the model's "individual scoring ability" variable. This match resulted in a net gain of 54 Elo points for the USA team.
The model subsequently raised the USA's probabilities for later stages. Currently, the USA has a 61.8% chance of reaching the Round of 16, a 30.6% chance of making the quarter-finals, a 3.3% chance of reaching the final, and its probability of winning the tournament has risen to 1.1%.
Top Three Teams Hold Nearly 60% of Championship Probability
Despite the USA delivering the most impressive performance on the opening day, Goldman Sachs's model has not altered its fundamental assessment of the championship landscape.
Data shows that Spain remains the top favorite to win this World Cup with a 24.7% probability; France follows in second place at 17.4%; and the defending champion, Argentina, ranks third at 15.0%. They are followed by: Brazil (7.9%), England (5.3%), Portugal (5.2%), Germany (5.1%), and Netherlands (4.9%).
In other words, the Goldman Sachs model suggests there is nearly a 60% chance the champion will come from among the three teams: Spain, France, and Argentina. Looking at the probability of reaching the final, Spain stands at 36.4%, France at 27.4%, and Argentina at 27.6%, forming a relatively distinct top tier.
Asian Teams Show Promise, North American Home Advantage Evident
Compared to previous World Cups, Goldman Sachs's model offers a relatively more positive outlook for Asian teams.
South Korea is seen as the most competitive Asian team, with a 49.3% probability of reaching the Round of 16 and a 0.2% chance of winning the tournament. Iran has a 31.7% chance of reaching the last 16, and Japan has a 30.9% chance. However, from a championship contention perspective, a clear gap remains between Asian teams and the traditional European and South American powerhouses. Currently, no Asian team has a probability of winning the tournament exceeding 1%.
As the first World Cup jointly hosted by the USA, Canada, and Mexico, North American teams are generally benefiting from a home advantage. Although Canada was held to a draw by Bosnia and Herzegovina in its opening match, it still has a 44.5% probability of reaching the Round of 16. The USA has further solidified its qualification prospects following its opening victory.
Goldman Sachs believes that familiar environments, shorter travel distances, and the support of home fans are becoming significant positive factors for North American teams.
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